Dollar And Presidential Cycles Lining Up For A Rally
A Seeking Alpha Contribution
Summary
- The U.S. dollar could be headed much higher in 2015.
- The presidential cycle predicts stocks will rally in Q4 and into 2015.
- November and December are two of the strongest months for stocks since 1950.
Conditions are favorable for a strong U.S. stock market performance in the fourth quarter of 2014 and into first half of 2015 once the current corrective selling has abated.
U.S. Dollar
The first factor working in the favor of stocks is the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). The major rally in the U.S. dollar since July has been historic, the first ever 12-week win streak for the U.S. Dollar Index in its entire history. While a stronger U.S. dollar has been bad for stocks during its rapid ascent, the move appears exhausted and there’s a historic parallel with the early 1997 U.S. dollar rally.
In fact, the parallels go much further, since the U.S. Dollar Index from 2002 to 2014 has behaved very similarly to the U.S. Dollar Index from 1985 to 1997, including the recent three-month rally…. To Continue Reading Please Click Here.
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