Click Here to view today’s Global Momentum Guide The S&P 500 Index declined 0.04 percent last week, the Nasdaq 0.18 percent, the MSCI EAFE 0.34 percent, the Dow Jones […]

Market Perspective for August 11, 2024
The previous five trading days were relatively devoid of any major scheduled news announcements. However, this doesn’t mean that there wasn’t any drama in the markets.
On Monday, the ISM Services PMI was released and came in at 51.4, which was higher than the anticipated 51.1. It was also higher than the 48.8 figure from last month. Ultimately, this month’s figure indicates that the service sector is expanding while last month the index indicated that there was a contraction in the service sector.
This could have some implications for inflation as the price of services was one of the main drivers of price increases across the board. On Thursday, unemployment claim data was released and revealed 233,000 people filed for benefits. The figure was lower than the anticipated 241,000 and lower than the 250,000 requests last week.
If unemployment claims figures stay where they are, it could mean that concerns about the labor market are unfounded. In addition to inflation figures, the Fed also takes unemployment and earnings data into account when making decisions about the country’s main interest rate. It could have an impact on whether the Fed will decrease rates quickly or whether they will continue to take a measured approach.
After significant volatility in the markets, there were some banks calling for a 50 basis point cut to the Fed Funds Rate. The rate is currently in a range between 5.25 percent and 5.5 percent. However, the consensus is still that the Fed will only cut rates by 25 points in September and continue to be dependent on data as it relates to future cuts.
It’s worth noting that the Japanese government said that it wouldn’t necessarily continue to raise interest rates as it had planned to. This helped to calm those who believed that higher Japanese interest rates would lead to the end of the years-long carry trade. Essentially, you borrow a currency that charges a lower interest rate and invest it into a currency that charges a higher interest rate.
You can also use your inexpensive funds to buy stocks or other items that have the potential to appreciate. Without access to cheap currency, many chose to sell their holdings to lock in profits. This was partially what led to the volatility seen in markets over the past couple of weeks.
This week the S&P 500 gained 3.72 percent to finish at 5,344. The market would effectively begin the week at its lowest point and finish the week at its highest point. On Monday morning, the index dipped to 5,150 before beginning its climb for the week.
The Nasdaq would gain 6.17 percent this week to finish at 16,745. Much like the S&P 500, the Nasdaq would begin the week at its low of 15,774 and finish at its highest point. Despite significant losses in the two weeks prior to this one, the index is still hovering near yearly and all-time highs.
Finally, the Dow would gain 908 points to close at 39,497 for the week. This represents an increase of 2.35 percent over the past five trading sessions. As with the other two indexes, the Dow also started at the low point of the week and finished at its weekly high. The low on Monday was 38,598.
In international news, Australia elected to keep its key interest rate steady at 4.35 percent. On Friday morning, Canada announced that it had lost roughly 2,800 jobs over the past month, which was much lower than the expected increase of almost 27,000 jobs over that same time period.
On Tuesday, the Price Producers Index (PPI) will be released while CPI data is set to be released on Wednesday. Inflation is expected to be 3 percent on an annualized basis. Retail sales and unemployment benefit figures will be released on Thursday morning.

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Global Momentum Guide for August 5, 2024
Click Here to view today’s Global Momentum Guide The MSCI EAFE slid 1.98 percent last week, the S&P 500 Index 2.06 percent, the Dow Jones Industrial Average 2.10 percent, […]

Market Perspective for August 4, 2024
It was a consequential week for market participants as the Federal Reserve made an interest rate decision on Wednesday. In addition, nonfarm payroll data was released on Wednesday and Friday. On Friday, markets had their worse day of losses since last year, pulling the market lower for the week.
The first of two main events for the week saw the Fed hold its key interest rate steady at a range of 5.25 percent to 5.5 percent. This was widely anticipated regardless of what the economy had done over the past couple of weeks. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that he senses that the time to reduce interest rates is coming soon and there are downside risks to waiting any longer.
He also mentioned that the risk of a hard landing is low. A hard landing refers to a recession occurring because of interest rate hikes. Of course, the other main event this week was the release of the ADP nonfarm payroll report on Wednesday and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) version of that same report on Friday. Those reports indicate that the economy is starting to slow.
On Wednesday, the ADP report found that the economy added 122,000 jobs in July, which was lower than the expected 147,000 new positions. The BLS reported that there were only 114,000 jobs added in July compared to an expected 176,000 new positions. In addition, last month’s figure was revised downward to 179,000.
It was also revealed on Friday that the unemployment rate jumped from 4.1 percent to 4.3 percent, which was .2 percent higher than analysts expected it to be. Finally, it was reported on Friday that average monthly earnings increased by .2 percent as opposed to an expected .3 percent.
Despite the lack of hiring, the number of open positions beat expectations. On Tuesday, the JOLTS report found that there were 8.18 million available jobs, which was higher than the expected 8.02 million. Meanwhile the CB Consumer Confidence report found that the index jumped to 100.3 this month from 97.8 last month. The index was expected to come in at 99.7.
On Wednesday, it was reported that pending home sales jumped by 4.8 percent in the last month. Furthermore, the June figure was revised upward to show a drop of only 1.9 percent from May.
On Thursday, it was revealed that unemployment claims increased to 249,000 from last week’s figure of 235,000. Analysts had projected that there would be 236,000 claims this week. Also on Thursday, the ISM Manufacturing PMI came out at 46.8 percent, which was below the expected 48.8.
The S&P 500 closed down 131 points this week to finish at 5,346, which represented a loss of 2.39 percent over the past five trading days. The market made its high of the week on Thursday when it reached 5,555 and would reach its low of the week on Friday morning when it dipped to 5,306.
The Dow lost 801 points this week to close at 39,737. This represented a loss of 1.98 percent for the week, and most of the loss was attributed to a Friday session in which the Dow lost 610 points. The high of the week came on Wednesday at 41,169 while the low of the week came on Friday when the market hit 39,375.
Finally, the Nasdaq dropped 4.18 percent this week to close at 16,776. On Wednesday afternoon, the Nasdaq hit its high of the week at 17,770 and would make its low of the week on Friday morning when it dipped to 16,620.
In international news, Great Britain reduced its interest rate to 5 percent from 5.25 percent on Thursday. This comes on the heels of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) increasing the nation’s key interest rate from about .10 percent to about .25 percent. Australia announced on Monday that its yearly CPI was 3.8 percent while the Eurozone announced on Wednesday morning that its estimated inflation rate for the year was 2.6 percent.
Next week will be relatively light on news in the United States with only the ISM Services PMI on Monday and unemployment claims on Thursday scheduled to be released.