Market Perspective for June 9, 2024

Market Perspective for June 9, 2024

On Monday, the Final Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing PMI data was made public. The manufacturing PMI from S&P Global came in at 51.3 percent, which indicates that the sector grew over the past month. The ISM PMI came in at 48.7 percent, which indicates that there was a contraction in the industry. It’s likely that the truth is somewhere in the middle with manufacturing largely remaining flat during the month of May.

On Tuesday, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report came out. During May, there were 8.07 million job openings in the United States, which was the lowest in years. This was seen as an indication that the labor market may be slowing down.

On Wednesday, the ADP version of the nonfarm payroll (NFP) report came out and revealed 152,000 jobs were added to the economy in May. This was lower than the projected 173,000 and also lower than the 188,000 figure that was reported for April.

In addition, the ISM Services PMI was released, and it came in at 53.8 percent, which was higher than the 51 percent projection and the 49.4 percent reported last month. This indicates that service sector spending may still be a key driver of the economy.

On Thursday, unemployment claims data came in, and it was revealed that 229,000 people had filed for benefits over the past seven days. This was compared to a projected 220,000 and 221,000 that was reported the prior week.

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) came out with its version of the NFP report, and it was quite a shocker to many market observers. In May, there were 272,000 jobs created compared to an estimated 182,000 and 165,000 a month ago. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4 percent and average hourly earnings went up .4 percent over the past month.

The increase in the unemployment rate is likely because of an increase to the overall labor participation rate. However, the increase in wages and job gains is likely related to continued strength in the economy, which could call into question whether the Fed is ready to cut rates. There was growing belief that the May jobs report would indicate further weakness in the economy and pave the way for reduced rates.

Over the past week, the S&P 500 gained 53.16 points to close at 5,346. The market made its weekly high on Friday at 5,368 and made its low of the week on Monday at 5,242. Currently, the S&P is at both yearly and all-time highs and has earned a return of 25 percent over the past 12 months.

The Dow was relatively flat this week finishing up 91 points to close at 38,798. This was a .24 percent gain over the last five trading days. The market would make its low of the week on Monday morning when it dipped to 38,291 while making a high of 39,004 on Friday.

The Nasdaq closed the week at 19,000 after gaining more than 346 points this week. That represented a gain of 1.86 percent over the past five trading days. As with the other markets, the Nasdaq made its low of the week on Monday at 18,394 and made its high of the week on Friday at 19,090.

In international news, the Bank of Canada (BOC) and the European Central Bank (ECB) cut their respective interest rates by 25 basis points. On Tuesday, Switzerland announced that its inflation rate was .3 percent on a monthly basis. Also on Tuesday, Australia announced that its gross domestic product (GDP) for the past quarter grew by .1 percent compared to an expected .2 percent.

The upcoming week is going to be full of news from both domestic and foreign sources. On Wednesday, inflation data is set to be released and the FOMC will make its June rate decision. It’s expected that rates will remain unchanged at 5.5 percent. Price change data will be released on Thursday. Internationally, Great Britain will release GDP data on Wednesday, while Japan will make its policy rate statement on Thursday evening.

Market Perspective for June 2, 2024

Market Perspective for June 2, 2024

The shortened holiday trading week saw the broader indexes close modesty lower. Tuesday began the week and saw the release of the CB Consumer Confidence Index. The index came in at 102, which was higher than last month’s 97.5 and was also higher than the projected 96.

On Wednesday, the Richmond Manufacturing Index was released and came in above expectations. The index came in at zero compared to an expected negative six. On Thursday, revised gross domestic product (GDP) data for the previous quarter was released, and it continued the trend of beating expectations. For the first quarter of 2024, the economy grew at a rate of 1.3 percent compared to an expected 1.2 percent. However, it’s worth noting that this was revised downward from an original estimate of 1.6 percent growth.

Also on Thursday, unemployment claims data was released, and over the past seven days, there were 219,000 requests for benefits, which was slightly higher than the 218,000 projected, and it was also slightly higher than the 216,000 who requested benefits in the previous week.

Finally, monthly pending home sales data was released on Thursday morning, and during the month of April, sales fell 7.7 percent. This was compared to an expected drop of 1.1 percent and was much lower than the 3.6 percent increase seen in March.

On Friday morning, the final piece of news came out, which was the Core PCE Price Index for the month of April. During that time period, prices changed by .2 percent, which was lower than the expected .3 percent. This is important because this is the data point that the Fed looks closely at when determining what the market is doing. If this number continues to come in lower than expected, it may convince the Fed that inflation is easing and that a rate cut might make sense.

Despite a wild ride for most of the week, the S&P 500 finished the week almost exactly where it started. On Friday, it closed at 5,277, which was a 6.22 point drop over the past four trading days. The market was in freefall from Tuesday’s open until Friday morning when it hit a low of 5,196. The weekly high was 5,311 that was hit on the open of trading on Tuesday morning.

Like the S&P, the Dow saw some instances of volatility as it finished down 1.1 percent this week to close at 38,686 at the end of trading on Friday. The market had reached a low of 38,025 on Thursday before reversing later in the day and shooting up more than 1.5 percent on Friday. The market made its high of the week on Tuesday afternoon when it hit 38,519.

Finally, the Nasdaq would finish the week lower by 216 points, which was a loss of 1.16 percent for the week. It would reach a high of 18,871 on Tuesday before making a low of 18,224 on Friday. It would close the week at 18,536 after gaining back a significant portion of its weekly losses on Friday.

In international news, Australia announced on Monday that retail sales for the month were up .1 percent compared to an expected gain of .3 percent. The nation also announced that its inflation rate was 3.6 percent on an annual basis compared to an expected 3.4 percent. On Thursday morning, Switzerland announced that its GDP for the past quarter was up .5 percent compared to an expected .3 percent. On Friday, Canada announced that its GDP over the past month remained flat, which was in line with analyst expectations.

The upcoming week features the release of the nonfarm payroll reports. The ADP report will be released on Wednesday while the BLS report will be issued on Friday. In addition, the Bank of Canada (BOC) will be making their latest rate decision on Wednesday while the European Union (EU) will make a refinancing rate decision on Thursday morning.