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It was another consequential week for traders as the nonfarm payroll jobs reports were released on Wednesday and Friday. There was also additional fallout from the war in Iran that caused volatility in the stock market.
On Tuesday, the JOLTS job report came out and revealed that there were 6.87 million openings in the United States. This was in line with analyst expectations and slightly lower than last month’s figure of 7.24 million. Also on Tuesday, the CB Consumer Confidence report came in at 91.8, which was well above the projected 87.8 and higher than last month’s figure of 91.
Wednesday saw the release of three major reports. The ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.7, which was roughly in line with analyst expectations. Core retail sales were up 0.5 percent last month compared to an expected increase of 0.3 percent. Overall retail sales were up 0.6 percent compared to an expected increase of 0.5 percent.
The ADP nonfarm payroll report found that the economy added 62,000 jobs in March, which was slightly lower than the 66,000 added in February. Analysts had expected the economy to have added 42,000 jobs prior to the release.
On Thursday, the unemployment claims report came out and found that 202,000 people requested benefits over the past seven days. This was lower than the expected 212,000 requests and lower than last week’s figure of 211,000.
The main event of the week took place Friday morning when the BLS released its version of the nonfarm payroll report. It found that the economy added 168,000 jobs in March, which was a significant gain from the 133,000 that were lost in February. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3 percent from 4.4 percent while average hourly earnings were up 0.2 percent.
Gold prices reached a high of $4,800 an ounce on Wednesday. Last week, it dipped to under $4,250 an ounce, which was about 20 percent lower than the yearly high of $5,500 that occurred in January. Silver also rebounded to as high as $75 this week after hitting a 2026 low of around $60 an ounce last week. That represented a loss of about 50 percent from the yearly high of $120 hit in late January.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices broke the $100 mark this week as WTI reached $105 a barrel on Thursday. Although President Trump announced plans to leave Iran soon, prices will likely remain elevated for some time, which have led to fears of a possible recession.
The S&P 500 was up 2 percent this week to close at 6,582. This was a gain of 130 points for an index that has been in the negative for several weeks now. On Monday morning, the market made its low of the week at 6,323 before reversing and peaking at 6,608 on Wednesday afternoon.
The Dow was also up just over 2 percent for the week to close at 46,504, which was a gain of 936 points since Monday. For the week, the index made a high of 46,741 on Wednesday and a low of 45,102 on Monday morning.
Finally, the Nasdaq was up 2.79 percent to close the week at 21,879. This was a gain of 592 points for an index that has failed so far to replicate the success it had in 2025. A portion of the uptrend can be attributed to investors thinking that tech companies may also be close to technical or fundamental resistance areas.
In international news, Canada announced Tuesday that its GDP increased by 0.1 percent in March. On Thursday, Switzerland announced that its CPI reading was up 0.2 percent in March compared to an expected increase of 0.5 percent.
The upcoming week will likely be another important one as a slew of news releases are expected. On Monday, the ISM Services PMI is scheduled to come out while durable good order data comes out on Tuesday. FOMC meeting minutes come out Wednesday while unemployment claim and final GDP data for the final quarter of 2025. Finally, CPI data will be released on Friday, and that will likely have a significant impact on markets and monetary policy moving forward.
On Tuesday, the Flash Manufacturing and Flash Services PMI reports were made public. The Flash Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.4, which was higher than the projected 51.5 and was higher than last month’s reading of 51.6. This indicates that the manufacturing sector is growing. The Flash Services PMI also indicated that the service sector was expanding as it came in at 51.1. However, this was lower than last month’s reading of 51.7 and lower than the 52 figure projected by analysts prior to the release.
On Thursday, unemployment claims data was released, and in the last seven days, there were 210,000 requests for benefits. This was roughly in line with projects and only slightly higher than the 205,000 requests for benefits a week ago.
Friday saw the release of the revised inflation expectation and consumer sentiment reports from the University of Michigan. Respondents said that inflation would likely be at 3.8 percent a year from now, which is up from 3.4 percent last month. Consumer sentiment came in at 53.3 compared to an expected 53.9.
The war with Iran created intense volatility in equity and commodities markets throughout the week. Markets made especially large moves on Monday morning as President Trump announced that he would not move to strike Iranian power plants.
The S&P 500 jumped about 250 points in a span of just a few minutes after the announcement. Other major indexes followed suit while gold and currencies such as the Australian dollar also jumped quickly. Meanwhile, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil dropped from about $100 a barrel to about $85 on Monday morning.
However, the price of WTI rebounded to close Friday’s session back near $100 a barrel while the equity markets ended the week lower. Equity markets were weighed down by a lack of funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), which oversees the Transportation Security Administration (TSA). This has resulted in disruptions to commerce as well as the loss of income for thousands of TSA agents, which have a ripple effect on the overall economy.
The S&P 500 lost 3.6 percent this week to close at 6,368. This was a loss of 237.7 points for an index. Over the past five trading days, the market made a peak of 6,614 on Wednesday and closed at its weekly low on Friday.
The Dow lost 2.65 percent this week to close at 45,166, which represents a loss of 1,261 points over the past five days. Over the past month, the index has lost 7.66 percent and is close to being in correction territory. For the week, it reached a high of 46,683 on Wednesday and closed near its weekly low on Friday.
Finally, the Nasdaq lost nearly 5 percent this week to close at 20,948, which was a loss of 1,071 points since Monday. On Friday, the index lost 2.15 percent as traders grappled with a possible AI bubble and other factors weighing against tech companies. The weekly high of 22,173 occurred early Monday morning while the low occurred on Friday afternoon.
The upcoming week will be another interesting one for market participants as there will be a lot of news to digest. On Tuesday, the JOLTS report comes out, while Wednesday sees the release of the ADP nonfarm payroll report. Retail sales data also comes out on Wednesday morning while the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases its version of the nonfarm payroll report on Friday. Unemployment claim data will be made public on Thursday morning as usual.
This past week was another consequential one for market participants as the Fed made its most recent rate decision. The war in Iran continued to put downward pressure on equity markets while keeping the price of oil, gold and other commodities elevated.
Wednesday was one of the busier news days overall as PPI figures were released prior to the Fed’s decision that afternoon. In February, wholesale prices rose by 0.7 percent compared to an expected 0.3 percent. Core wholesale inflation rose by 0.5 percent compared to an expected gain of 0.3 percent.
The main event of the week came on Wednesday when the Fed decided to keep rates at 3.75 percent. However, the Fed’s tone was markedly different than it was just weeks prior as it noted that the economy was strong and capable of absorbing shocks to the system.
Many believe that Powell’s comments are an indication that rates will remain steady throughout the course of 2026. However, it’s most likely that the Fed will cut rates at least once this year or keep them where they are. This is still a step back from the idea that at least two rate cuts were coming in the next six months with another one possible late in the year.
Two more important scheduled news items came out on Thursday in the form of new housing sales data and unemployment claims figures for the past week. In January, there were 587,000 new homes sold compared to a projected 722,000 sold in December. Over the past seven days, there were 205,000 requests for benefits, which was lower than the projected 215,000 and last week’s figure of 213,000.
The S&P 500 lost 200 points this week to close at 6,506, which was a loss of almost 3 percent over the last five trading days. The market made a high of 6,741 on Tuesday before reversing and making a low of 6,476 early on Friday. The index has lost over 4 percent over the past month and is inching closer to correction territory since topping 7,000 earlier this year.
The Dow lost more than 1,300 points to finish the week at 45,577. This is a loss of 2.79 percent over the past five trading days and a loss of nearly 10 percent since breaking 50,000 earlier in 2026. As with the S&P 500, the Dow made its high of the week on Tuesday before reversing and finishing near its weekly low on Friday. The high of the week was 47,376 while the low was 45,397.
Finally, the Nasdaq lost just over 3.2 percent to close at 21,647 on Friday. This was a loss of 724 points for the index that outperformed the S&P and Dow for much of last year. The index it is still up more than 22 percent over the past 12 months, which is better than the Dow or S&P 500. For the week, the index made a high of 22,568 on Tuesday and a low of 21,534 on Friday.
In international news, Canada revealed Monday that inflation was up 0.5 percent in February. This put it at 2.3 percent on an annualized basis, which was below the projected 2.4 percent. Also on Monday, Australia raised its main interest rate to 4.1 percent. Canada opted on Monday to keep its key interest rate at 2.25 percent while Japan announced Wednesday that it would also keep its rate stable at 0.75 percent. Switzerland, Great Britain and the Eurozone also kept their interest rates steady this week.
The coming week has several news events on the calendar. On Tuesday, the Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI will be released. On Thursday, the unemployment claim data for the past seven days will be made public. The University of Michigan releases its consumer confidence and inflation expectation reports as well.
The March Issue of the ETF Investor Guide is AVAILABLE NOW! Links to the March Data Files have been posted below. Market Perspective: Stocks Resilient Despite International Conflict Equities minimized […]
