Market Perspective for January 11, 2026

Market Perspective for January 11, 2026

The first full week of trading in 2026 was another hectic one as a number of important news releases were made public. Perhaps the most consequential were the December jobs reports that came out on Wednesday and Friday mornings. The release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Services PMI and JOLTS reports also created some volatility.

On Monday, the ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 47.9, which was lower than the expected 48.3. It was also lower than last month’s reading of 48.2. Regardless, the number indicates that the sector is in a period of contraction, which meshes well with some of the other data points that came out later in the week.

On Wednesday, the ADP released its version of the nonfarm payroll report, and it found that 41,000 jobs were added in December compared to an expected 49,000. November’s reading was revised upward from a loss of 32,000 jobs to a loss of just 29,000 jobs. However, the sluggish December figure was seen as a surprise considering that employers typically ramp up hiring before Christmas.

The ISM Services PMI came in at 54.4 compared to an expected 52.2 and last month’s figure of 52.6. This was the one bright spot of the week and implies that consumers are still willing to spend money.

Finally on Wednesday, the JOLTS employment report found that there were 7.15 million open positions in the United States. This was compared to an expected 7.61 million positions and 7.42 million positions available in November. These figures may indicate that employers are opting to leave open positions vacant as opposed to trying to replace those who have been let go in recent months.

On Thursday, the unemployment claims data came out and revealed that 208,000 people requested benefits over the past seven days. That is slightly lower than the 213,000 requests analysts had expected prior to the release.

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that the economy added 50,000 jobs in December compared to an expected 66,000. It was thought that recent Fed rate cuts would help to spur hiring. After the report came out, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he would be cautious regarding future cuts. The unemployment rate ticked down 0.2 percent from November to 4.4 percent.

The S&P 500 was up 1.1 percent this week to close at 6,966, and this was a gain of almost 76 points for an index poised to top 7,000 for the first time ever. For the week, the index made its low of 6,895 just after Monday’s open and closed near its weekly high on Friday.

The Dow Jones closed the week up 1.81 percent higher to finish at 49,504 on Friday afternoon. This was a gain of more than 800 points over the last five days. As with the S&P 500, the Dow made a low of 48,650 on the open Monday and finished near its weekly high on Friday.

The Nasdaq was up 1.3 percent this week to close at 25,766. This was a gain of 331 points for the group of stocks that looks to pick up where it left off last year as the top performing major American index.

In international news, Australia announced Tuesday night that inflation was flat in November and was 3.4 on an annualized basis. Canada announced on Friday that its economy added 8,200 new jobs in December. It also announced that the nation’s unemployment rate rose 0.1 percent to 6.8 percent.

The upcoming week is sure to be another interesting one as oil markets continue to react to Trump’s actions in Venezuela. Gold and silver markets should also continue to see volatility as new leverage rules impact trading strategies. Inflation data will be released on Tuesday while retail sales and price producer index (PPI) figures come out on Wednesday.

Market Perspective for January 4, 2026

Market Perspective for January 4, 2026

On Monday, pending home sale data was made public, and over the past month, there was an increase of 3.3 percent in those sales. This may be due to mortgage rates falling to levels not seen in recent years, which has caused buyers to pounce while they have a chance to keep their payments at an affordable level. There has also been a slowdown in home price increases in several parts of the country, which had created more flexibility in the market.

An increase in home sales is a good sign for the economy because it generally means a series of additional consumer purchases are on the way. For instance, a homeowner will likely buy furniture, appliances or materials to upgrade their property. This can also be good news for contractors and other service providers who help maintain or improve homes.

On Tuesday, the main event of the week came in the form of the FOMC meeting minutes for December. During that meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the minutes from that gathering show that there are likely to be more cuts in the future. However, the minutes also showed that voting members were torn as to how many cuts should occur and when they may take place.

This is partially because there are two schools of thought as it relates to inflation caused by our current tariff policy. There are also questions about the quality of the data that is being distributed as impacts are still being felt from the government shutdown in late 2025.

Fortunately, there was no question about the accuracy of the final weekly unemployment claims for 2025. The last week of December saw 199,000 requests for benefits, which was about 20,000 fewer than expected and about 15,000 fewer than reported last week.

Trading was relatively slow this week, but the markets were open and did make some moves over the final days of 2025. The S&P 500 was down 0.72 percent to finish the week at 6,858. For the week, the index made a high of 6,911 on Monday morning and a low of 6,858 on Friday.

The Dow was down about 0.6 percent this week, which was a loss of 290 points. This week, the index made a high of 48,640 on the open of Monday’s session and a low of 47,917 on Friday morning.

Finally, the Nasdaq was down 1.55 percent this week to finish at 25,206, which was a loss of 397 points. Over the last five trading days, the index opened the week at its high of 25,590 and made a low of 25,109 on Friday.

Next week will be a jobs report Friday as the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announces the employment figures for December. The ADP version of this report will come out on Wednesday. The BLS projects that the economy added 57,000 jobs in the final month of 2025. The University of Michigan will be releasing consumer sentiment and inflation expectation data on Friday as well. Finally, the ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM Services PMI will also be released next week.

Market Perspective for December 28, 2025

Market Perspective for December 28, 2025

The Christmas holiday meant that the most important news was released during the first half of the week.

On Tuesday, the preliminary gross domestic product (GDP) data from the last three months was made public. During that time, the economy grew by an estimated 4.3 percent. This was significantly higher than the projected 3.3 percent and also higher than the 3.8 percent posted last quarter.

Also on Tuesday, the CB consumer confidence report was repleased, coming in at 89.1. This was lower than both the projected 91.7 and last month’s figure of 92.9, which was upwardly revised when this month’s report came out. This means that consumers aren’t buying that the economy is going to be great in a few months despite what recent numbers suggest.

On Wednesday, the unemployment claims data for the last seven days came out. Over that time, 214,000 people requested benefits. This was about 10,000 more than expected, and it was also about 10,000 more than the previous week.

The S&P 500 was up 1.93 percent this week to close at 6,929. This was a gain of 131 points over last week, and most of the gain occurred on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. The index made its low of the week on Monday when it dipped to 6,858 before going up the rest of the week. The high came on Friday morning when the market peaked at 6,944.

The Dow was up 1.2 percent to close at 48,710 at the end of the day Friday, which was a gain of 575 points for the week. As with the S&P, the Dow did most of its work during the first three days of the week before staying in a tight range on Friday. On Monday, the market made its low of the week at 48,245 and made its high of the week on Wednesday when it peaked at 48,741.

Finally, the Nasdaq was also up this week finishing 1.87 percent higher to close at 25,644. This was a gain of 471 points last week. The Nasdaq saw most of its gains over the first three days of the week. On Tuesday, the index made its low of the week when it dipped to 25,416 while it made its high of the week on Friday morning when it peaked at 25,710.

There were a couple of notable international releases. The Canadian GDP shrunk by 0.3 percent over the last quarter. On Thursday night, Japan announced that inflation was 2.3 percent on an annualized basis, which was lower than the projected 2.5 percent.

The upcoming week is likely to be another slow one as the markets will close for New Year’s. Tuesday will see the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting, which is likely to further highlight the differing opinions between the voting members. On Wednesday, unemployment claim figures for the past seven days will be made public. Finally, Friday sees the release of the final manufacturing PMI for December.

Market Perspective for December 21, 2025

Market Perspective for December 21, 2025

This week was another consequential one for investors as several important data points were released. Those data points included the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) version of the nonfarm payroll report, retail sales information from November and CPI figures from November. Unemployment figures data as well as the Flash Services and Flash Manufacturing PMI figures also added volatility to markets.

On Tuesday, the BLS reported that 64,000 jobs had been added in November compared to an expected 51,000. In somewhat of a surprise move, the October jobs report was also made public, and it revealed that the economy lost 105,000 jobs that month.

Average hourly earnings were up 0.4 percent in October and cooled to just 0.1 percent in November. It was expected that wages would go up by 0.3 percent during that time. Despite the increase in job creation, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.6 percent, which is a sign that more people are entering the workforce.

Retail sales for November were flat while core retail sales were up 0.4 percent over the past month. Retail sales overall were expected to be up 0.1 percent while core retail sales were expected to be up 0.2 percent.

The Flash Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.8 while the Flash Services PMI came in at 52.9. Although both figures failed to meet analyst expectations, they indicate that both the manufacturing and service sectors were in a growth cycle in November.

On Thursday, it was revealed that inflation in November was up 2.7 percent on an annualized basis. This was lower than the projected 3.1 percent.
There were 224,000 filings for unemployment benefits over the past week, which matched analyst expectations. It was also a slight pullback from last week’s figure of 237,000 claims.

The S&P 500 was down 11 points this week to close at 6,834. This was a loss of 0.16 percent for the index on the final full trading week of December. Despite the loss, the index is still near all-time highs. Over the past five days, the index made a high of 6,844 on Monday morning and a low of 6,734 on Wednesday morning.

The Dow was down roughly 500 points this week to close at 48,134. This was a loss of just over 1 percent. Over the last five trading days, the market made a high of 48,630 on Monday morning and a low of 47,902 on Thursday morning.

Finally, the Nasdaq was down 27 points to close at 25,346. This was a loss of 0.11 percent for the index that features hot names such as Nvidia, Apple and Tesla. For the week, the index made its weekly high on Monday and its weekly low on Wednesday.

In international news, the Bank of Japan decided to increase the nation’s key interest rate by 25 basis points to just under .75 percent. Meanwhile, Great Britain reduced its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75 percent and the European Union (EU) maintained the status quo at 2.15 percent.

The upcoming week will likely be quiet as Thursday is the Christmas holiday. It’s likely that both Wednesday and Friday will see limited action as well. Gross domestic product data will be released on Tuesday while unemployment claims will be released on Wednesday.