The past week was an interesting one as President Trump’s second term officially began on Monday. Market participants and observers will no doubt spend the next several months looking for clues as to how Trump’s policies will impact the markets and monetary policy going forward.
Trump has proposed 25 percent tariffs on goods coming from Mexico and Canada, and he also proposed an additional 10 percent tariff on goods coming from China. Tariffs may also be imposed on imports from countries located inside of the European Union (EU). Although they were not put into effect on the first day of his term, it was announced on Wednesday that they will be imposed starting February 1st.
There were only a few scheduled news releases last week, and the first one came on Thursday when unemployment claims data for the past seven days was made public. Over the last seven days, 223,000 people filed for benefits compared to an expected 221,000.
On Friday, the Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI reports came out. For the first time in multiple years, manufacturing came in above 50, which signals a period of expansion. The report came in at 50.2 percent compared to an expected 49.8 percent. The services number was 52.8 percent, which was lower than the expected 56.4 percent. Also on Friday, the University of Michigan released its revised consumer sentiment number, which was 71.1 compared to an expected 73.3.
The S&P 500 was up by 1.86 percent over the past five trading days to close at 6,101. On Tuesday morning, the market made its low of the week at 6,008 before reversing and spending Wednesday and Thursday advancing. On Friday morning, the market made its high of the week at 6,122, which is a new record.
As with the S&P 500, the Dow was also up this week closing 2.06 percent higher over the past five trading days to finish at 44,424. On Tuesday, the market made its weekly low at 43,766 before turning around and climbing to 44,523 on Friday afternoon.
The Nasdaq was up 1.46 percent to finish at 19,954 at the close of trading on Friday. The market made its low of 19,620 on Tuesday morning and made it high of the week on Friday morning when it reached 20,106.
Investors who have exposure in foreign markets were likely interested in the bevy of news that came from Japan, Canada and elsewhere. Early Friday morning, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised the country’s interest rate to around .5 percent from around .25 percent. During the news conference held after announcing the decision, the BOJ said that further hikes could be coming.
On Thursday, Canada announced that retail sales were flat over the last month while core retail sales were down .7 percent. The nation had previously announced on Tuesday that inflation was down .4 percent over the last month and had ticked down to 2.4 percent from 2.6 percent on an annualized basis. Also on Tuesday, New Zealand announced that inflation was up .5 percent over the previous quarter.
There are going to be several consequential news releases over the next five trading days in the United States and abroad. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve makes its next rate decision, and it’s believed that the Fed will stand pat at 4.5 percent. On Thursday, GDP and unemployment claims data will be released while the PCE Price Index will be released on Friday. Australia, Canada and several nations within the EU will release inflation data while Canada and the European Central Bank (ECB) will join the US in making interest rate decisions.