Market Perspective for January 26, 2025

Market Perspective for January 26, 2025

The past week was an interesting one as President Trump’s second term officially began on Monday. Market participants and observers will no doubt spend the next several months looking for clues as to how Trump’s policies will impact the markets and monetary policy going forward.

Trump has proposed 25 percent tariffs on goods coming from Mexico and Canada, and he also proposed an additional 10 percent tariff on goods coming from China. Tariffs may also be imposed on imports from countries located inside of the European Union (EU). Although they were not put into effect on the first day of his term, it was announced on Wednesday that they will be imposed starting February 1st.

There were only a few scheduled news releases last week, and the first one came on Thursday when unemployment claims data for the past seven days was made public. Over the last seven days, 223,000 people filed for benefits compared to an expected 221,000.

On Friday, the Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI reports came out. For the first time in multiple years, manufacturing came in above 50, which signals a period of expansion. The report came in at 50.2 percent compared to an expected 49.8 percent. The services number was 52.8 percent, which was lower than the expected 56.4 percent. Also on Friday, the University of Michigan released its revised consumer sentiment number, which was 71.1 compared to an expected 73.3.

The S&P 500 was up by 1.86 percent over the past five trading days to close at 6,101. On Tuesday morning, the market made its low of the week at 6,008 before reversing and spending Wednesday and Thursday advancing. On Friday morning, the market made its high of the week at 6,122, which is a new record.

As with the S&P 500, the Dow was also up this week closing 2.06 percent higher over the past five trading days to finish at 44,424. On Tuesday, the market made its weekly low at 43,766 before turning around and climbing to 44,523 on Friday afternoon.

The Nasdaq was up 1.46 percent to finish at 19,954 at the close of trading on Friday. The market made its low of 19,620 on Tuesday morning and made it high of the week on Friday morning when it reached 20,106.

Investors who have exposure in foreign markets were likely interested in the bevy of news that came from Japan, Canada and elsewhere. Early Friday morning, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised the country’s interest rate to around .5 percent from around .25 percent. During the news conference held after announcing the decision, the BOJ said that further hikes could be coming.

On Thursday, Canada announced that retail sales were flat over the last month while core retail sales were down .7 percent. The nation had previously announced on Tuesday that inflation was down .4 percent over the last month and had ticked down to 2.4 percent from 2.6 percent on an annualized basis. Also on Tuesday, New Zealand announced that inflation was up .5 percent over the previous quarter.

There are going to be several consequential news releases over the next five trading days in the United States and abroad. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve makes its next rate decision, and it’s believed that the Fed will stand pat at 4.5 percent. On Thursday, GDP and unemployment claims data will be released while the PCE Price Index will be released on Friday. Australia, Canada and several nations within the EU will release inflation data while Canada and the European Central Bank (ECB) will join the US in making interest rate decisions.

Market Perspective for January 20, 2025

The first full trading week in January was quite volatile as the market anticipates a number of policy changes that will likely have an impact on stocks, bonds and currencies when Donald Trump takes office.

The first major news release came out on Tuesday when the Price Producers Index for December was made public. It was reported that Core PPI was flat while overall PPI was up .2 percent. Analysts had expected Core PPI to increase by .2 percent while overall PPI was expected to increase by .4 percent.

On Wednesday, inflation data was released and provided some calm to jittery markets. It was revealed that Core CPI increased by .2 percent for December while overall CPI was up .3 percent. It was believed that Core CPI increased by .3 percent prior to the release while overall CPI was in line with analyst expectations. On an annualized basis, inflation rose from 2.7 percent to 2.9 percent.

Thursday saw the release of retail sales data in addition to unemployment claims data for the previous seven days. Core retail sales as well as overall retail sales were up by .4 percent over the last month, which was lower than the projected .5 percent and .6 percent increases, For the past week, there were 217,000 claims for unemployment benefits, which was higher than the projected 210,000 claims prior to the report’s release.

On Friday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced that extraordinary measures would begin on Tuesday. Those measures are designed to ensure that the government doesn’t default on its financial obligations after the nation hits its debt limit. A default could happen at some point in the summer if the debt ceiling isn’t increased or abandoned altogether.

The S&P 500 finished the week up 3.61 percent to close at 5,996. It made its low of the week on Monday morning when it dipped to 5,981 just before noon that day. The market then reversed and would finish at its weekly high. Despite the strong gains over the past five trading days, the index is still down about 1 percent for the month.

Like the S&P, the Dow also finished the week up more than 3 percent closing at 43,487 at the end of trading on Friday. The two indexes were also similar in that they made their lows of the week on Monday. On Monday, the Dow dipped to 41,957 before reversing and closing just off its high of the week of 43,632.

Finally, the Nasdaq finished at 19,630, which was a gain of 3.87 percent for the week. It made its low of the week on Monday morning when it dipped to 18,882 and would make its high of the week of 19,687 on Friday afternoon. As with the other indexes, the Nasdaq is down for the year having lost nearly 2 percent in January.

In international news, Great Britain announced on Tuesday morning that inflation was 2.5 percent on an annualized basis, which was slightly lower than the 2.6 percent reported in December. On Wednesday, the nation announced that retail sales were up .1 percent for the month. Australia announced on Wednesday evening that the nation’s unemployment rate inched up to 4 percent despite its economy adding over 50,000 jobs in the final month of 2024. It was announced early Friday morning that Japan will likely increase the nation’s key interest rate next week.

The upcoming week is going to feature a significant number of events, besides the inauguration of President-Elect Trump on Monday. On Friday, Flash Services and Flash Manufacturing PMI reports will be made public, and several European countries will release their own such reports on Thursday evening and early Friday morning.

Market Perspective for January 12, 2025

Market Perspective for January 12, 2025

The first full trading week of January was a consequential one, largely because nonfarm payroll reports were released. On Wednesday, the ADP nonfarm payroll report revealed that 122,000 jobs were added in December, which was lower than the expected 139,000 and was also lower than November’s 149,000 figure.

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its report that found the economy added 256,000 jobs in December. This was higher than the expected 164,000 additional positions and was also higher than the 212,000 added last month. It’s worth noting that November’s figure was revised downward, so it’s possible that changes could be forthcoming to December’s tally as well.

The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1 percent from 4.2 percent. Average hourly earnings were steady at .3 percent for the month of December, which was what analysts had expected prior to the release of that information.

The FOMC meeting notes from the December gathering were made public. One of the key takeaways was that Donald Trump’s plan to use tariffs as a trade tool could make it harder to restrain upward price pressures. Ultimately, it could result in slower rate cuts in the coming year.

Furthermore, the Fed announced that rate cuts could be on hold without any tariffs because inflation has remained sticky. With demand for services still strong, it’s unlikely that inflation will return to the stated goal of 2 percent anytime soon. On Tuesday, the ISM Services PMI came in at 54.1 compared to an expected 53.5. Also on Tuesday, the JOLTS labor survey indicated that there were 8.1 million positions available, which was higher than the 7.73 believed to be available.

Unemployment claims data was released on Wednesday morning. It was revealed that 201,000 claims for benefits were made during the past seven days, which was below the expected 214,000.

The S&P 500 finished 2.66 percent lower this week to close at 5,827. On Monday, the index made a high of 6,019 before reversing and tumbling through Friday morning. Early that day, the market hit its low of 5,817.

As with the S&P, the Dow would also fall by more than 2 percent closing at 41,938. During the shortened trading week, the market ranged from a high of 43,109 set on Monday to a low of 41,889 set on Friday.

Finally, the Nasdaq also fell this week by more than 3.6 percent to close at 19,161. The market would hit its high of the week on Monday afternoon when it reached 19,994. Meanwhile, its low of the week was 19,044 set on Friday morning prior to gaining ground that afternoon.

In international news, Canada also announced jobs data on Friday signaling that the country’s economy may be on the mend. It was revealed that the economy added nearly 91,000 jobs and saw its unemployment rate drop to 6.7 percent compared to an expected 6.8 percent. Australia announced on Tuesday that inflation in the nation was 2.3 percent compared to an expected 2.2 percent on an annualized basis.

The upcoming week will feature the release of price change data on Tuesday followed by CPI figures on Wednesday. Inflation is expected to have increased to 2.9 percent on an annualized basis from 2.7 percent last month. Retail sales data will be released on Thursday in addition to unemployment claims for the past week.