The Investor Guide to Vanguard Funds for November is AVAILABLE NOW! Links to the November data files are posted below. Market Perspective: AI Investment Surge Continues A trade deal with […]


The Investor Guide to Vanguard Funds for November is AVAILABLE NOW! Links to the November data files are posted below. Market Perspective: AI Investment Surge Continues A trade deal with […]

The government shutdown is finally over after President Trump signed a bill reopening Washington for business late in the week. This means that a number of reports that were postponed because of a lack of government funding are likely to be issued at some point in the coming days.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is scheduled to release the September jobs report on Thursday. It’s worth noting that the figures may be incomplete or an estimate as not all data has been collected or thoroughly analyzed. The BLS also warns that the October jobs report that was due out earlier in November may not be released at all because of a lack of information.
As part of the bill, all federal workers who worked without pay will receive retroactive compensation. Furthermore, thousands of workers who were terminated or facing termination will either be reinstated or have their terminations cancelled.
The reopening of the government will likely cause some short-term chaos as states will need time to send out SNAP benefits and other benefits delayed by the lack of funding. In addition, it may take time for airports to get back to full capacity as air traffic controllers slowly return to work. It’s estimated that the shutdown will ultimately result in a 0.1 percent to 0.2 percent drop in current quarter gross domestic product.
One of the silver linings is that the government will be collecting inflation, employment and other important data going forward. This will likely provide some clarity for the Fed as they decide whether further rate cuts are warranted as the year comes to a close.
The S&P 500 was relatively quiet in spite of the end of the shutdown. For the week, the index was down 66 points, which is a loss of about 1 percent, to close at 6,738. Despite the pullback, the market is still up about 2 percent over the past month and is up more than 13 percent over the past 12 months. Over the last five days, the market made a high of 6,863 on Wednesday and a low of 6,660 on Friday morning.
The Dow was flat this week finishing down 39 points, which was a drop of about 0.08 percent. At the close of trading Friday, the index was at 47,171, which is still near yearly and all-time highs. On Wednesday, the market made its high of the week peaking at 48,369 while it made a low of 46,923 on Friday.
Finally, the Nasdaq was the most volatile market this week falling 429 points to close at 25,007. This was a loss of 1.69 percent for an index that is up nearly 20 percent over the past 12 months. However, in the short-term, questions about AI and other economic headwinds may cause some volatility that must be navigated.
Internationally, Australia announced on Wednesday that its economy added 42,000 jobs over the last month, and the country’s unemployment rate is 4.3 percent. On Thursday morning, Great Britain announced that its GDP dropped 0.1 percent over the past month. Switzerland announced that it had reached a deal to lower export tariffs from 39 percent to 15 percent. In addition, the country would invest $200 billion in the United States by 2028.
The upcoming week is going to feel more like normal as a number of reports will be issued. In addition to the September jobs reports, the Fed will be releasing the minutes from its most recent meeting. Friday, the Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI will be released. Unemployment claims numbers for the week will likely be released on Thursday assuming that sufficient data has been collected.

The government shutdown has now dragged on for more than 5 weeks, which means it is officially the longest on record. It also means that the October jobs report scheduled to be released on Nov. 7 was delayed indefinitely. This is the second consecutive month that the report has failed to be released on time, and there are doubts as to whether it will be released at all.
However, some clues may be gleaned from the release of the ADP nonfarm payroll report on Wednesday. It was found that the economy added 42,000 jobs, which was slightly more than the expected increase of 32,000. It was significantly higher than last month’s report when the economy lost 29,000 jobs. Whether this is a sign that the economy will continue to teeter on the edge of growth instead of moving toward recession won’t be known for several more weeks as jobs reports are often revised.
A couple of other important reports were released this week in the form of the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the ISM Services PMI. The ISM Manufacturing PMI was released Monday and came in at 48.7, which was roughly in line with the projected 49.4. However, it was slightly lower than last month’s 49.1. Regardless, it indicates that manufacturing is in a minor contraction.
The ISM Services PMI was released on Wednesday and came in at 52.4, which was much higher than the projected 50.7. It was also higher than last month’s reading of exactly 50. This continues a pattern established over the past several months in which the pace of manufacturing declines while demand for services continues to grow.
Also on Friday, the University of Michigan released its consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data. The preliminary numbers found that consumer sentiment was 50.3 while respondents believed that inflation would be at 4.7 percent 12 months from now.
The S&P 500 was down more than 1.8 percent this week to close at 6,728. That was a loss of 129 points for an index that has seemingly been making or matching yearly and all-time highs on a weekly basis. On Monday morning, the market made its high of the week at 6,857 before spending the next few days in freefall. It hit its low on Friday morning when it bottomed out at 6,634.
The Dow also lost more than 1 percent over the past five trading days closing at 46,987. This represents a loss of 527 points for an index that has had few losing weeks since April and is still challenging to meet or break all-time highs. Monday morning, the index peaked at 47,489 and would make its low of the week Friday morning when it fell to 46,530.
The Nasdaq also finished the first week of November lower. It fell by 4.1 percent on fears of a potential AI bubble dragging on some of the market’s top companies. The index finished the week at 25,059, which was more than 1,000 points lower than it began on Monday. The Nasdaq made a weekly high of 26,023 on Monday. On Friday, the market made its weekly low of 24,631.
In international news, the Swiss government announced early Monday that inflation was down 0.3 percent over the past month. Later Monday, Australia announced that the nation’s key interest rate would remain at 3.6 percent. Thursday, Great Britain announced that it would also retain the status quo by keeping its key interest rate at 4 percent. Finally, on Friday, Canada announced that its unemployment rate was 6.9 percent while the economy added 66,000 jobs over the past month.
If the government shutdown ends, United States inflation data will be released on Thursday. On Friday, retail sales and price change data will be released assuming that the government is back open for business. However, there is little reason to believe that this will happen. Internationally, Australia is set to release unemployment change data while Great Britain will release GDP figures.

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The government shutdown will officially make its way into a second month as an agreement to reopen still hasn’t been made. It will likely have an impact on monetary policy moving forward as the Federal Reserve is being asked to make decisions without key data.
It’s unlikely that the September jobs report is going to be published, and it’s also likely that the October jobs report will be delayed as well. It would typically be delivered on the first Friday of the month.
This week, the Fed released its October rate decision, and it decided to reduce the country’s main interest rate by 25 basis points. Although such a move was expected, the final vote was an interesting one as there was dissention in both directions. One voting member believed that the Fed Funds Rate should stay where it is while another voted for a rate cut of 50 basis points.
While many believe that there will be one or two more rate cuts this year, the shutdown has made this less of a foregone conclusion. A lack of data leaves the Fed with a cloudy picture of consumer demand as well as the overall health of the job market. Therefore, some may want to move cautiously preferring to ease back to neutral or to stand pat in case inflation comes roaring back.
There were a couple of notable events on the tariff front this week with President Trump agreeing to reduce duties paid by China on its exports to the United States. He also held firm on his decision not to negotiate with Canada even after Canadian officials agreed to take down ads criticizing tariffs.
The S&P 500 closed out the month of October on a winning note as the index closed the week up 11.7 points to finish at 6,840. This represents a gain of 0.17 percent for the week that saw the market make a high of 6,919 on Wednesday and a low of 6,830 on Friday afternoon.
The Dow was also up slightly this week to finish at 47,562. This was a gain of 185.93 points or 0.39 percent for the market that continues to make fresh all-time highs. Over the last five days, the index made a high of 47,989 and a low of 47,347.
Finally, the Nasdaq made small gains this week finishing at 23,724 at the close of Friday’s trading. This was a gain of 210 points or 0.9 percent for the tech index. Over the past five days, it made a high of 24,016 and a low of 23,557.
In international news, both the Royal Bank of Canada (BOC) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) made interest rate decisions this week. On Wednesday, the BOC reduced the country’s main rate by 25 basis points to 2.25 percent. The BOJ kept rates steady at roughly 0.5 percent. In addition, the Eurozone made its October interest rate announcement choosing to keep its main rate steady at 2.15 percent.
The upcoming week will feature several important news announcements even if the shutdown isn’t resolved. Among the top releases include the ISM Services PMI and ISM Manufacturing PMI in addition to the ADP version of the nonfarm payroll report expected out on Wednesday. If the shutdown is resolved, the BLS version of the report will be issued on Friday along with the PCE Core Price Index data.