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This past week was another consequential one for market participants as the Fed made its most recent rate decision. The war in Iran continued to put downward pressure on equity markets while keeping the price of oil, gold and other commodities elevated.

Wednesday was one of the busier news days overall as PPI figures were released prior to the Fed’s decision that afternoon. In February, wholesale prices rose by 0.7 percent compared to an expected 0.3 percent. Core wholesale inflation rose by 0.5 percent compared to an expected gain of 0.3 percent.

The main event of the week came on Wednesday when the Fed decided to keep rates at 3.75 percent. However, the Fed’s tone was markedly different than it was just weeks prior as it noted that the economy was strong and capable of absorbing shocks to the system.

Many believe that Powell’s comments are an indication that rates will remain steady throughout the course of 2026. However, it’s most likely that the Fed will cut rates at least once this year or keep them where they are. This is still a step back from the idea that at least two rate cuts were coming in the next six months with another one possible late in the year.

Two more important scheduled news items came out on Thursday in the form of new housing sales data and unemployment claims figures for the past week. In January, there were 587,000 new homes sold compared to a projected 722,000 sold in December. Over the past seven days, there were 205,000 requests for benefits, which was lower than the projected 215,000 and last week’s figure of 213,000.

The S&P 500 lost 200 points this week to close at 6,506, which was a loss of almost 3 percent over the last five trading days. The market made a high of 6,741 on Tuesday before reversing and making a low of 6,476 early on Friday. The index has lost over 4 percent over the past month and is inching closer to correction territory since topping 7,000 earlier this year.

The Dow lost more than 1,300 points to finish the week at 45,577. This is a loss of 2.79 percent over the past five trading days and a loss of nearly 10 percent since breaking 50,000 earlier in 2026. As with the S&P 500, the Dow made its high of the week on Tuesday before reversing and finishing near its weekly low on Friday. The high of the week was 47,376 while the low was 45,397.

Finally, the Nasdaq lost just over 3.2 percent to close at 21,647 on Friday. This was a loss of 724 points for the index that outperformed the S&P and Dow for much of last year. The index it is still up more than 22 percent over the past 12 months, which is better than the Dow or S&P 500. For the week, the index made a high of 22,568 on Tuesday and a low of 21,534 on Friday.

In international news, Canada revealed Monday that inflation was up 0.5 percent in February. This put it at 2.3 percent on an annualized basis, which was below the projected 2.4 percent. Also on Monday, Australia raised its main interest rate to 4.1 percent. Canada opted on Monday to keep its key interest rate at 2.25 percent while Japan announced Wednesday that it would also keep its rate stable at 0.75 percent. Switzerland, Great Britain and the Eurozone also kept their interest rates steady this week.

The coming week has several news events on the calendar. On Tuesday, the Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI will be released. On Thursday, the unemployment claim data for the past seven days will be made public. The University of Michigan releases its consumer confidence and inflation expectation reports as well.

Inflation data was released on Wednesday and mostly fell in line with analyst expectations. Core CPI came in at 0.2 percent for the month while overall CPI was 0.3 percent on a monthly basis. Inflation was 2.4 percent on an annualized basis, which was the same as last month and in line with projections.
On Thursday, unemployment claims for the last seven days was released. Over that time period, there were 213,000 requests for benefits, which was slightly below last week’s figure of 214,000.

On Friday, a slew of important reports were released including preliminary GDP data, the JOLTS report and the Core PCE Price Index. The preliminary GDP report for the fourth quarter found that the economy grew just 0.7 percent during that period. This was roughly half of the initial estimate of 1.4 percent and well below the 4.3 percent growth in the third quarter.

The JOLTS report revealed that there were 6.95 million jobs available in January. This was just below the project 6.74 million and last month’s figure of 6.54 million.

The Core PCE Price Index was up 0.4 percent in January, which was in line with expectations. However, it’s worth noting that this report also reflects data from before the Iran war began. This is also the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. If it continues to rise, it’s possible that the Fed may pause future rate cuts.

Although Trump has indicated that the war may end shortly, oil prices will likely remain elevated for as long as the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed to traffic. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), which is the benchmark oil price in the United States, spiked to $116 a barrel early Monday morning. It is hovering between $90 and $95 a barrel as of Friday afternoon.

The S&P 500 was down 26.26 points this week to close at 6,631. This represented a drop of 0.39 percent over the course of the trading week. On Tuesday, the index made a high of 6,833 before reversing course and finishing near its weekly lows.

The Dow lost 350 points to finish the week at 46,558. This was a loss of 0.75 percent for the index. It would peak on Tuesday, hitting 48,211, before reversing and closing near the low of the week.

Finally, the Nasdaq lost 32 points this week to finish Friday at 22,105. This was a loss of 0.15 percent. On Tuesday afternoon, the index peaked at 22,902 prior to flipping and finishing the week sliding in negative territory.

In international news, Great Britain announced early Friday morning that GDP growth was flat in February. Canada announced on Friday that its economy shed almost 84,000 jobs in February compared to an expected gain of about 10,000.

The upcoming week will likely be filled with more important news as the war in Iran rages on. Wednesday will be a particularly important news day as the February PPI will be released while the Fed will make its latest interest rate decision. It’s expected that the Federal Funds rate will remain at 3.75 percent.

The first full trading week in March was volatile. In addition to the February jobs report released on Friday, the military conflict with Iran has weighed on equities and oil prices.

On Monday, the ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.4 compared to an expected 51.7. However, it was slightly lower than last month’s reading of 52.6. Regardless, it shows that manufacturing in the United States is going through an expansion phase.

The ISM Services PMI was released Wednesday and came in at 56.7. This was compared to an expected 53.5 and a January reading of 53.8. As with manufacturing, the services industry is also in a period of expansion that has lasted for several years now.

Also on Wednesday, ADP released its version of the nonfarm payroll report. In February, the economy added 63,000 jobs compared to a projected 50,000 before the release. However, job gains in January were revised downward to just 11,000.

Unemployment claims data was released Thursday and was largely unchanged from the previous week. Over the last seven days, 213,000 requests for benefits were made, which was the same as the previous reading.

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) issued its version of the nonfarm payroll report. In a shocker, it revealed that the economy lost 92,000 jobs in February compared to an expected gain of 58,000. The unemployment rate increased to 4.4 percent while average hourly earnings were up 0.4 percent.

Finally on Friday, retail sales data from January was made public. It was revealed sales were down 0.2 percent that month compared to an expected drop of 0.3 percent. A softer job market and softer retail spending may indicate choppier economic waters going forward.

The conflict with Iran sent West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil up to near $90 a barrel this week. This represents a yearly high and a level not seen since April of 2024. It’s believed that oil prices could surge even higher if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

Equity markets were mostly lower this week starting with the S&P 500. The index was off by 1.41 percent to close at 6,740. This was a drop of 96 points for an index that is now negative for the year. For the week, the market reached a high of 6,898 on Monday before reversing and hitting its weekly low of 6,712 on Tuesday.

The Dow closed the week off 2.27 percent from the open on Monday. This represented a drop of 1,100 points over the last five trading days for the market that closed Friday’s trading at 47,501. It made a high of 49,041 on Monday before losing ground the rest of the week. The low of 47,055 occurred on Friday.

Finally, the Nasdaq was down 0.55 percent this week to close at 24,643. This was a loss of 137 points over the last five trading days, and in addition to war in Iran, questions about the long-term value of AI also weighed on the tech-heavy index. For the week, the Nasdaq made a low of 24,319 on Monday and a high of 25,176 on Wednesday.

In international news, Australia announced on Tuesday evening that GDP growth over the last quarter was 0.8 percent compared to an expected 0.7 percent increase. On Wednesday, Switzerland announced that inflation increased by 0.6 percent in February compared to an expected increase of 0.5 percent.

The upcoming week will feature a number of important data points. Inflation data will be released on Wednesday while the Core PCE Price Index for February comes out on Friday. Preliminary GDP data for the previous quarter will also be released on Friday. In addition, developments in Iran will likely create volatility in the stock, oil and metals markets.