Market Perspective for December 7, 2025

Market Perspective for December 7, 2025

The first full trading week of December was eventful. On Monday, the ISM Manufacturing PMI was released and came in at 48.2, which was lower than expected and was also lower than last month’s figure of 48.7. This implies that the manufacturing sector in the United States is in a period of contraction, which continues a narrative that has lasted for several years now.

The ISM Services PMI came out on Wednesday and found that services demand was still strong. For the past month, the PMI was at 52.6, which was higher than the projected 52 and slightly higher than last month’s 52.4.

Also on Wednesday, the ADP version of the nonfarm payroll report came out and found that the economy lost 32,000 jobs in November. Analysts believed that the economy had added 5,000 jobs prior to the report. The November figure represented a sharp decline from October’s gain of 47,000 jobs.

On Thursday, unemployment claim data for the last seven days was made public. It was revealed that 191,000 people requested benefits over the period. This was the lowest number in three years, and economists are puzzled as to how jobless claims are down during a period of slower hiring.

On Friday, it was announced the Core PCE Price Index was up 0.2 percent, which was in line with expectations. Furthermore, the University of Michigan released their inflation expectation and consumer sentiment reports. Consumer sentiment came in at 53.3, which was a slight increase from last month’s 51 while respondents believe that inflation will be at 4.1 percent a year from now.

The S&P 500 was up 0.88 percent this week to close at 6,870 on Friday. This was an increase of about 60 points from the start of trading on Monday. For the week, the index made a low of 6,806 on Tuesday and a high of 6,894 on Thursday.

The Dow was up 1.07 percent this week to close at 47,954, which was an increase of just over 500 points since the start of trading on Monday. For the week, the index made a low of 47,292 on Tuesday and a high of 48,091 on Thursday.

Finally, the Nasdaq was up 1.76 percent over the last five trading days to close the week at 25,692. This was an increase of just over 440 points since the start of trading Monday. For the week, the index made a low of 25,220 early Monday morning and a high of 25,809 on Friday morning.

In international news, Australia announced Tuesday evening that its gross domestic product grew by 0.4 percent over the last quarter. Switzerland announced early Wednesday morning that inflation fell by 0.2 percent over the last month compared to an expected drop of 0.1 percent. On Friday, Canada announced that its economy added 53,600 jobs and that its unemployment rate dropped to 6.5 percent.

The upcoming week will be an interesting one as several important news releases are on the calendar. On Tuesday, the JOLTS figures from September, October and November are scheduled to be made public. On Wednesday, the Fed will make its December rate decision, and it’s expected that the main rate will fall to 3.75 percent from 4 percent. Unemployment claims data will be released Thursday to round out the weekly schedule.

Market Perspective for November 30, 2025

Market Perspective for November 30, 2025

The final trading week of November was a front-loaded one. A number of scheduled news releases came out on Tuesday as the Price Producer Index (PPI) and retail sales figures from September were made known. Core PPI was up 0.1 percent, which was lower than the expected increase of 0.2 percent and higher than August’s drop of 0.1 percent. Overall PPI was up 0.3 percent, which was in line with expectations. It also represented an increase from August when prices dropped 0.1 percent that month.

Core retail sales were up 0.3 percent and was also in line with expectations. It marked a sharp decrease from August when sales were up 0.6 percent, which was a downward revision from the original report that month. Overall retail sales were up 0.2 percent compared to an expected 0.4 percent and were also down from an increase of 0.6 percent in August.

Although retail sales were up in September, consumer confidence was down in October. In that month, the CB Consumer Confidence figure came in at 88.7 compared to an expected 93.4. However, the report was revised upward in October to 95.5 several weeks after the initial figure was released.

On Wednesday, unemployment claim figures for the last seven days were made public. Over that time period, there were 216,000 requests for benefits compared to an expected 226,000. Last week, there were 222,000 such requests for unemployment benefits.

A second gross domestic product (GDP) estimate was originally scheduled to be released on Wednesday. However, it was cancelled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) because of the government shutdown. The BEA said that the release would occur at some point in the future.

The S&P 500 made a holiday rally this week picking up 4.4 percent to finish Friday’s trading at 6,849. The index overcame a sluggish first half of the month to give some hope that the close of the year will be a strong one. For the week, the market opened at its low, gained ground all week and then closed at its high.

The Dow also had a strong week closing up 4 percent to finish at 47,716. This was a gain of 1,848 points for an index that was able to get over the hump and finish November in the green. As with the S&P 500, the Dow also started the week at its lowest point and closed at its highest point.

The Nasdaq turned in the best performance this week finishing up just over 5 percent to close at 23,365, which was an increase of 1,143 points over the past five trading days. Despite The index cut its loses to 0.78 percent for the month

In international news, Australia announced Tuesday night that its inflation rate was 3.6 percent over the past month. Also on Tuesday, New Zealand announced that it was reducing the nation’s key interest rate from 2.5 percent to 2.25 percent. Finally, on Thursday night, Japan announced its inflation rate was 2.8 percent on an annualized basis.

The September PCE Price Index results are scheduled to be released on Friday in addition to the Bureau of Labor Statistics version of the nonfarm payroll report for November. The ADP version of that report is scheduled to be released on Wednesday. ISM PMI data will also be released next week in addition to the unemployment claims figures on Thursday morning.

Market Perspective for November 23, 2025

Market Perspective for November 23, 2025

The final full trading week before the Thanksgiving holiday was another eventful one for the market. A slew of data that was delayed because of the shutdown was finally released, and equity markets experienced a high level of volatility as questions about the future of AI are still dragging on the Nasdaq.

On Tuesday, weekly unemployment claims for the first four weeks of the shutdown were released. They showed that between 220,000 and 235,000 people applied for benefits during this time period. This was roughly in line with what analysts had expected for those weeks and consistent with what the Fed believed the employment situation to look like during the information blackout.

On Thursday, reports for the following three weeks impacted by the shutdown were released. During that period there was a range of 220,000 to 229,000 requests for benefits, which was again generally in line with expectations.

Also on Thursday, the October jobs report was released, which was based on nonfarm payroll changes in September. During the month of September, the economy added 119,000 jobs, which was a bit of a surprise. In August, the economy lost 4,000 jobs following a gain of just 73,000 jobs in July. It was expected that the economy to have gained 53,000 jobs in September.

The Fed has a lot to consider before its December meeting. As of now, the Fed Funds Rate is at about 4 percent, and many voting members within the FOMC have said that the terminal rate is likely lower.

However, the minutes of the last FOMC meeting were released on Wednesday and did little to clarify what the Fed might do next. One key takeaway is that not all voting members believe tariffs are going to lead to inflation. Combined with a surprise jump in employment numbers, there is little reason to have any conviction as to whether additional cuts are coming in the near future.

Finally, on Friday, the Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI were released. The Flash Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.9, which was what analysts expected prior to the release. The Flash Services PMI came in at 55, which was also almost perfectly in line with analyst expectations.

The S&P 500 closed the week down 136 points to close at 6,602, which was a loss of 2.02 percent. However, a complete bloodbath was avoided as the index closed up 0.98 percent for the day on Friday. For the week, the market made a high of 6,764 on Thursday and a low of 6,548 on Friday morning.

The Dow was down 1.86 percent to close the week at 46,245, which was a loss of 879 points this week. As with the S&P 500, the Dow was able to pare some of its losses on Friday as the index finished the final trading day of the week up 493 points. On Monday, the index opened at the weekly high of 47,190 and made a low of 45,815 on Friday morning.

Finally, the Nasdaq was also down this week losing 675 points to finish Friday’s trading at 24,239. As with the S&P 500, the Nasdaq made its high of the week on Thursday and its low of the week on Friday. The high of the week was 25,151 while the low was 23,949.

In international news, Great Britain announced on Wednesday that its inflation rate was 3.6 percent on an annualized basis. On Friday, the country announced that retail sales were down 1.1 percent in October. On Monday, Canada announced that its median inflation rate was 2.9 percent on an annualized basis.

The upcoming week will be a frontloaded due to the Thanksgiving holiday. Retail sales data and monthly price change data will be released on Tuesday while Core PCE Price Index and preliminary GDP data is tentatively set to be made public on Wednesday.