Market Perspective for August 18, 2024

Market Perspective for August 18, 2024

This week saw several consequential news releases come out that will likely shape expectations for how the Fed will act in September. The figures released over the last five days will also likely have an impact on whether market participants believe that there is going to be a soft landing for the economy.

On Tuesday, the Price Producer Index (PPI) was released. It revealed that overall, prices increased by .1 percent during the past month, compared to an expected increase of .2 percent over that same time period. Core PPI was flat for the current month compared to an expected increase of .2 percent, and it’s worth noting that the Core PPI for June was downgraded to an increase of .3 percent.

On Wednesday, the CPI report for July came out, and it revealed that inflation was 2.9 percent on an annualized basis, which was lower than the expected 3 percent. Core CPI and overall CPI were up .2 percent on a monthly basis, which was in line with what analysts were expecting.

On Thursday, retail sales figures were made available to the public, and it was revealed that overall sales were up 1 percent on a monthly basis. Core retail sales were up .4 percent on a monthly basis, which was more than the .1 percent gain that analysts had projected. Overall sales were only expected to go up by .4 percent.

It’s worth noting that there were some questions about the data as the figures were significantly better than expected. However, the main takeaway for most observers is that it’s more likely that the economy can remain strong for the time being.

The other takeaway is that the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates by more than 25 basis points. After some poor economic news last week, markets fell dramatically, and it was thought that the Fed might need to make a cut of 50 basis points.

However, markets have largely recovered since initially making solid gains last Friday. In comments earlier this week, Fed member Bostic said that it might make more sense to simply hold off until the end of the year to make a cut. He mentioned that it would be worse to stay the course instead of cutting early and having to raise rates again in the future.

Also on Thursday, unemployment claims data came in better than expected as there were only 227,000 claims for benefits compared to an expected 236,000. This gives some more credence to the idea that the economy might be able to survive even if rates aren’t slashed immediately.

On Friday, the University of Michigan came out with its preliminary inflation expectation and consumer sentiment reports. Consumers believe that inflation will remain at 2.9 percent 12 months from now. Consumer sentiment was 67.8, which was higher than the expected 66.7.

The S&P 500 was up 3.65 percent to close at 5,554 this week. On Tuesday morning, the market hit its low of 5,336 before beginning a steady climb into Friday. On Friday afternoon, the S&P would hit its high of 5,558 before easing slightly into the close.

Like the S&P 500, the Dow would also gain more than 3 percent this week to close at 40,659. On Monday afternoon, the market hit its low of the week at 39,306, and it would hit its high of 40,270 on Friday afternoon.

Finally, the Nasdaq was the big winner for the week as it would finish up 4.91 percent to close at 17,631. The Nasdaq made its low of the trading week on Monday morning at 16,739 and would make its high for the last five trading days on Friday afternoon when it tapped 17,660.

In international news, New Zealand cut its interest rate by 25 basis points on Tuesday night. On Wednesday morning, it was revealed that inflation in the United Kingdom (UK) came in at 2.2 percent compared to an expected 2.3 percent. On Thursday, it was revealed that GDP growth was flat in the UK.

The upcoming week will be dominated by the Jackson Hole Symposium taking place on Thursday and Friday. Jerome Powell will speak there on Friday morning. FOMC meeting minutes are scheduled to be released on Wednesday afternoon, which could give some insight into where the Fed might be heading with interest rates. Internationally, Canada is expected to release inflation data on Tuesday while many European nations will be releasing Services and Manufacturing PMI data on Thursday.

Market Perspective for August 11, 2024

Market Perspective for August 11, 2024

The previous five trading days were relatively devoid of any major scheduled news announcements. However, this doesn’t mean that there wasn’t any drama in the markets.

On Monday, the ISM Services PMI was released and came in at 51.4, which was higher than the anticipated 51.1. It was also higher than the 48.8 figure from last month. Ultimately, this month’s figure indicates that the service sector is expanding while last month the index indicated that there was a contraction in the service sector.

This could have some implications for inflation as the price of services was one of the main drivers of price increases across the board. On Thursday, unemployment claim data was released and revealed 233,000 people filed for benefits. The figure was lower than the anticipated 241,000 and lower than the 250,000 requests last week.

If unemployment claims figures stay where they are, it could mean that concerns about the labor market are unfounded. In addition to inflation figures, the Fed also takes unemployment and earnings data into account when making decisions about the country’s main interest rate. It could have an impact on whether the Fed will decrease rates quickly or whether they will continue to take a measured approach.

After significant volatility in the markets, there were some banks calling for a 50 basis point cut to the Fed Funds Rate. The rate is currently in a range between 5.25 percent and 5.5 percent. However, the consensus is still that the Fed will only cut rates by 25 points in September and continue to be dependent on data as it relates to future cuts.

It’s worth noting that the Japanese government said that it wouldn’t necessarily continue to raise interest rates as it had planned to. This helped to calm those who believed that higher Japanese interest rates would lead to the end of the years-long carry trade. Essentially, you borrow a currency that charges a lower interest rate and invest it into a currency that charges a higher interest rate.

You can also use your inexpensive funds to buy stocks or other items that have the potential to appreciate. Without access to cheap currency, many chose to sell their holdings to lock in profits. This was partially what led to the volatility seen in markets over the past couple of weeks.

This week the S&P 500 gained 3.72 percent to finish at 5,344. The market would effectively begin the week at its lowest point and finish the week at its highest point. On Monday morning, the index dipped to 5,150 before beginning its climb for the week.

The Nasdaq would gain 6.17 percent this week to finish at 16,745. Much like the S&P 500, the Nasdaq would begin the week at its low of 15,774 and finish at its highest point. Despite significant losses in the two weeks prior to this one, the index is still hovering near yearly and all-time highs.

Finally, the Dow would gain 908 points to close at 39,497 for the week. This represents an increase of 2.35 percent over the past five trading sessions. As with the other two indexes, the Dow also started at the low point of the week and finished at its weekly high. The low on Monday was 38,598.

In international news, Australia elected to keep its key interest rate steady at 4.35 percent. On Friday morning, Canada announced that it had lost roughly 2,800 jobs over the past month, which was much lower than the expected increase of almost 27,000 jobs over that same time period.

On Tuesday, the Price Producers Index (PPI) will be released while CPI data is set to be released on Wednesday. Inflation is expected to be 3 percent on an annualized basis. Retail sales and unemployment benefit figures will be released on Thursday morning.