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On Monday, the Final Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing PMI data was made public. The manufacturing PMI from S&P Global came in at 51.3 percent, which indicates that the sector grew over the past month. The ISM PMI came in at 48.7 percent, which indicates that there was a contraction in the industry. It’s likely that the truth is somewhere in the middle with manufacturing largely remaining flat during the month of May.

On Tuesday, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report came out. During May, there were 8.07 million job openings in the United States, which was the lowest in years. This was seen as an indication that the labor market may be slowing down.

On Wednesday, the ADP version of the nonfarm payroll (NFP) report came out and revealed 152,000 jobs were added to the economy in May. This was lower than the projected 173,000 and also lower than the 188,000 figure that was reported for April.

In addition, the ISM Services PMI was released, and it came in at 53.8 percent, which was higher than the 51 percent projection and the 49.4 percent reported last month. This indicates that service sector spending may still be a key driver of the economy.

On Thursday, unemployment claims data came in, and it was revealed that 229,000 people had filed for benefits over the past seven days. This was compared to a projected 220,000 and 221,000 that was reported the prior week.

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) came out with its version of the NFP report, and it was quite a shocker to many market observers. In May, there were 272,000 jobs created compared to an estimated 182,000 and 165,000 a month ago. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4 percent and average hourly earnings went up .4 percent over the past month.

The increase in the unemployment rate is likely because of an increase to the overall labor participation rate. However, the increase in wages and job gains is likely related to continued strength in the economy, which could call into question whether the Fed is ready to cut rates. There was growing belief that the May jobs report would indicate further weakness in the economy and pave the way for reduced rates.

Over the past week, the S&P 500 gained 53.16 points to close at 5,346. The market made its weekly high on Friday at 5,368 and made its low of the week on Monday at 5,242. Currently, the S&P is at both yearly and all-time highs and has earned a return of 25 percent over the past 12 months.

The Dow was relatively flat this week finishing up 91 points to close at 38,798. This was a .24 percent gain over the last five trading days. The market would make its low of the week on Monday morning when it dipped to 38,291 while making a high of 39,004 on Friday.

The Nasdaq closed the week at 19,000 after gaining more than 346 points this week. That represented a gain of 1.86 percent over the past five trading days. As with the other markets, the Nasdaq made its low of the week on Monday at 18,394 and made its high of the week on Friday at 19,090.

In international news, the Bank of Canada (BOC) and the European Central Bank (ECB) cut their respective interest rates by 25 basis points. On Tuesday, Switzerland announced that its inflation rate was .3 percent on a monthly basis. Also on Tuesday, Australia announced that its gross domestic product (GDP) for the past quarter grew by .1 percent compared to an expected .2 percent.

The upcoming week is going to be full of news from both domestic and foreign sources. On Wednesday, inflation data is set to be released and the FOMC will make its June rate decision. It’s expected that rates will remain unchanged at 5.5 percent. Price change data will be released on Thursday. Internationally, Great Britain will release GDP data on Wednesday, while Japan will make its policy rate statement on Thursday evening.

The shortened holiday trading week saw the broader indexes close modesty lower. Tuesday began the week and saw the release of the CB Consumer Confidence Index. The index came in at 102, which was higher than last month’s 97.5 and was also higher than the projected 96.

On Wednesday, the Richmond Manufacturing Index was released and came in above expectations. The index came in at zero compared to an expected negative six. On Thursday, revised gross domestic product (GDP) data for the previous quarter was released, and it continued the trend of beating expectations. For the first quarter of 2024, the economy grew at a rate of 1.3 percent compared to an expected 1.2 percent. However, it’s worth noting that this was revised downward from an original estimate of 1.6 percent growth.

Also on Thursday, unemployment claims data was released, and over the past seven days, there were 219,000 requests for benefits, which was slightly higher than the 218,000 projected, and it was also slightly higher than the 216,000 who requested benefits in the previous week.

Finally, monthly pending home sales data was released on Thursday morning, and during the month of April, sales fell 7.7 percent. This was compared to an expected drop of 1.1 percent and was much lower than the 3.6 percent increase seen in March.

On Friday morning, the final piece of news came out, which was the Core PCE Price Index for the month of April. During that time period, prices changed by .2 percent, which was lower than the expected .3 percent. This is important because this is the data point that the Fed looks closely at when determining what the market is doing. If this number continues to come in lower than expected, it may convince the Fed that inflation is easing and that a rate cut might make sense.

Despite a wild ride for most of the week, the S&P 500 finished the week almost exactly where it started. On Friday, it closed at 5,277, which was a 6.22 point drop over the past four trading days. The market was in freefall from Tuesday’s open until Friday morning when it hit a low of 5,196. The weekly high was 5,311 that was hit on the open of trading on Tuesday morning.

Like the S&P, the Dow saw some instances of volatility as it finished down 1.1 percent this week to close at 38,686 at the end of trading on Friday. The market had reached a low of 38,025 on Thursday before reversing later in the day and shooting up more than 1.5 percent on Friday. The market made its high of the week on Tuesday afternoon when it hit 38,519.

Finally, the Nasdaq would finish the week lower by 216 points, which was a loss of 1.16 percent for the week. It would reach a high of 18,871 on Tuesday before making a low of 18,224 on Friday. It would close the week at 18,536 after gaining back a significant portion of its weekly losses on Friday.

In international news, Australia announced on Monday that retail sales for the month were up .1 percent compared to an expected gain of .3 percent. The nation also announced that its inflation rate was 3.6 percent on an annual basis compared to an expected 3.4 percent. On Thursday morning, Switzerland announced that its GDP for the past quarter was up .5 percent compared to an expected .3 percent. On Friday, Canada announced that its GDP over the past month remained flat, which was in line with analyst expectations.

The upcoming week features the release of the nonfarm payroll reports. The ADP report will be released on Wednesday while the BLS report will be issued on Friday. In addition, the Bank of Canada (BOC) will be making their latest rate decision on Wednesday while the European Union (EU) will make a refinancing rate decision on Thursday morning.

The Fed took what many considered to be a hawkish tone according to the meeting minutes that were released on Wednesday afternoon. It was revealed that Jerome Powell is also concerned that inflation may be persistent, which would make it harder to justify rate cuts in the near future.

However, other members of the Fed have come out and said that other information shows that inflation may be slowly creeping back toward 2 percent. Specifically, Rapheal Bostic said that this might be the case, and he also said that the economy that emerged after 2020 may not be as sensitive to rate hikes.

Of course, the Fed minutes were not the only major piece of news to come out this week. On Thursday, Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI numbers were made public. The Flash Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.9 percent, which was higher than the projected 50.0. The Flash Services PMI came in at 54.8, which was well above the projected 51.2 and higher than last month’s figure of 51.3.

Thursday also saw the reveal of unemployment claim numbers from the previous week. Over the past seven days, there were 215,000 requests for benefits, which was less than the projected 220,000 requests and less than the 223,000 that were made the week before.

On Friday, two more important pieces of news were released, and they had to do with durable goods orders as well as reports issued by the University of Michigan. Durable goods orders were up .7 percent on a monthly basis compared to an estimated drop of .9 percent. Core durable orders were up .4 percent compared to an estimated increase of .1 percent on a monthly basis.

The University of Michigan’s revised inflation expectation figures showed that Americans thought that the inflation rate would be 3.3 percent a year from now. This was revised downward from 3.5 percent earlier in the month. Consumer sentiment was revised upward to 69.1 percent compared to an expected 67.8 percent.

The S&P 500 closed the week at 5,304, which was a drop of .09 percent during the last five trading days. It would make a high of 5,332 on Thursday morning and a low of 5,263 on Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, the index spent the rest of the week in a tight trading range as it sits near yearly and all-time highs.

The Nasdaq would finish the week at 16,920, which was an increase of 1.09 percent over the past five trading days. It would make a weekly high of 16,945 on Thursday afternoon and a low of 16,694 just before closing that same day. Like the S&P, the Nasdaq otherwise spent the rest of the week meandering in a close range.

Finally, the Dow would finish the week at 39,069, which was a 2.34 percent drop in the past five trading days. The Dow opened at 40,068 on Monday morning and spent the rest of the week in a freefall. It would close near its low of the week, which was 39,058 set late on Friday afternoon.

In international news, Great Britain announced Friday morning that retail sales had dropped 2.3 percent on a monthly basis. On Tuesday, Canada announced that its inflation rate had fallen to 2.6 percent. Also on Tuesday, New Zealand announced that it would hold its key interest rate steady at 5.5 percent.

This upcoming week will feature several news announcements in the United States. On Tuesday, the CB Consumer Confidence Index will be released while GDP and home sales figures will be made public on Thursday. The monthly Core Price Index comes out on Friday, and the Fed will likely be eyeing that number carefully as it tends to be their preferred gauge on inflation. It’s projected that prices went up by .2 percent over the past 30 days.

This past week was an interesting one for traders as a number of important news releases came out. The main event was the release of CPI figures from the month of April, which showed a slight slowdown in the pace of inflation on both a monthly and on an annual basis.

In April, inflation increased by .3 percent, which was lower than the expected .4 percent. On an annual basis, inflation was at 3.4 percent, which was exactly what analysts had predicted. Over the past year, housing prices have been a significant contributor to overall inflation, which slowed over the past month.

Therefore, if housing prices were to stabilize, it could mean that overall inflation could have a better chance of getting back to the Fed’s 2 percent target. At a minimum, the data was enough for Fed Chair Jerome Powell to come out and say that rate hikes were unlikely at this point. Speculation surrounding rate hikes had become more rampant after previous CPI reports and payroll figure releases told a story of an economy that was still hot.

Now, there is some optimism that the Fed might consider a rate cut in September. However, Powell and the rest of the voting members will be under a microscope by then because of the upcoming election. Any decision to change rates may be perceived as favorable to one candidate or the other, but Powell insists that politics will have no influence on the decisions made throughout the year.

Also on Wednesday, it was revealed that retail sales were flat in April. However, it is worth noting that the price producer index (PPI) was up .5 percent over that same time period. Therefore, it might mean that consumers are becoming less interested in paying the higher prices companies and service providers are passing on to them.

On Thursday, it was revealed that 222,000 people applied for unemployment benefits over the past week. This was lower than the 232,000 who applied last week but higher than the 219,000 who were projected to have filed.

The S&P 500 finished the week up 1.4 percent to close at 5,303. It would make a weekly high of 5,324 on Thursday afternoon and would make its low of the week on Tuesday when it dipped to 5,222.

The Dow would top 40,000 for the first time ever this week and would close at 40,003 after hitting a weekly high of 40,044 on Thursday afternoon. The weekly low was 39,386 established on Tuesday morning. The closing price represented a gain of .87 percent for the week for an index that is up 19.7 percent over the past 12 months.

Finally, the Nasdaq would join the other two major indexes in the black finishing up 1.97 percent to close at 16,685. The weekly high was established on Thursday when the market hit 16,789 while the weekly low was hit on Monday morning when the market opened the week at 16,356.

In international news, New Zealand reported on Sunday night that inflation expectations for the nation dropped from 2.5 percent to 2.33 percent. On Tuesday evening, Australia reported that its wage price index dropped to .8 percent for the previous quarter compared to 1 percent for the last quarter of 2023. Also on Tuesday, Great Britain announced that 8,900 additional adults filed for unemployment benefits in the month of April.

Next week is the final full trading week of May as the following Monday is the Memorial Day holiday. It will be relatively light on news in the United States aside from a Sunday speech from Jerome Powell and revised consumer sentiment and inflation expectations from the University of Michigan coming out on Friday. The Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI comes out Thursday morning in the United States, and those same surveys will be released throughout Europe during their Thursday session as well.