Market Perspective for December 29, 2024

Market Perspective for December 29, 2024

The final full trading week of 2024 was a muted one as the Christmas holiday led to several days of lower trading activity. However, there were a couple of news announcements that market participants should be aware of heading into the new year.

On Monday, the Consumer Board Consumer Confidence report came in at 104.7, which was lower than the expected 112.9 and lower than last month’s 112.8. Also on Monday, new home sales were up to 664,000 from 627,000 in November. This was slightly lower than the expected 666,000 new home sales.

On Thursday, unemployment claims data came out and revealed that 219,000 people made requests for benefits over the past seven days. This was close to the expected 223,000 claims and was slightly lower than last week’s figure of 219,000.

The last couple weeks of the trading year are often considered ideal for traders as the so-called Santa Claus rally typically occurs during this period. The S&P 500 was up 2.27 percent over the past five trading days to close the week at 5,970. On Monday morning, the index hit its low of the week of 5,912 while it made a high of 6,043 on Thursday afternoon.

As with the S&P 500, the Dow would also finish the week higher, gaining 1.97 percent over the past five days. The weekly low of 42,551 was set on Monday morning while the high of the week occurred on Thursday afternoon when the index hit 43,348. It would close the week at 42,992, which is about 500 points away from the all-time high set earlier in 2024.

Finally, the Nasdaq was up 2.6 percent this week to finish at 19,722. This represented a gain of almost 500 points over the past five trading days with the market making its high of the week of 20,039 on Thursday. On Monday morning, the index made its low of the week when it dipped to 19,558.

There were a few announcements made by international central banks this week. On Monday, Canada announced that its gross domestic product (GDP) had gone up .3 percent in November compared to an expected .2 percent. On Thursday night, Japan announced that its inflation rate was 2.4 percent on an annualized basis, which was slightly lower than the projected 2.5 percent.

Thursday will see the release of unemployment claims for the last seven days while Friday sees the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI.

Pending home sale data and other housing sales data will be released on Monday and Tuesday, which may cause some volatility prior to the new year. The only noteworthy news releases internationally include Monday’s release of the Spanish annual CPI rate and the Chinese Manufacturing PMI release on Tuesday evening.

Market Perspective for December 22, 2024

Market Perspective for December 22, 2024

The week before the Christmas holiday was full of important news. On Monday, the first important piece of information was released when the Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI came out. It was revealed that the Flash Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.3, which is lower than the expected 49.4 and lower than last month’s 49.7.

This means that manufacturing is still in a period of contraction as it has been for most of 2024. Meanwhile, the Flash Services PMI came in at 58.5, which was more than the projected 55.7 and higher than last month’s 56.7. This implies that the service sector is expanding and is doing so faster than most expected it to, which is also a trend that has existed for most of 2024.

On Tuesday, retail sales data was made public, and the results were mixed depending on what you were expecting. Core retail sales came in at .2 percent for the month, which was lower than the expected .4 percent. Core retail sales includes everything except auto sales, which are considered to be extremely volatile.

Overall retail sales were up .7 percent compared to an expected .6 percent over the past month. Taken together, these data points imply that retail spending may be slumping heading into the start of 2025. This would be interesting considering that the holiday season is the busiest one for retailers and consumers alike.

On Wednesday, the Fed made its final interest rate decision of the year. Although it was an almost foregone conclusion that a cut was coming, there was still plenty of intrigue about where the Fed goes from here. Going into 2025, the Fed Funds rate will stand at 4.5 percent, which is roughly a full percentage point lower than it was to begin 2024.

However, it’s not clear if there will be any rate cuts coming in the first half of 2025. There is some worry that inflation remains sticky and is currently hovering around 2.5 percent, which is higher than the Fed’s target of 2 percent.

On Thursday, the final gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter came out and revealed that the economy grew 3.1 percent during those three months. In addition, unemployment benefit claims data came out, and it revealed that 220,000 filed for benefits in the past seven days.

This was compared to an expected 229,000. Finally, on Friday, the core PCE Price Index grew by .1 percent in November compared to an expected .2 percent growth.

The S&P 500 dropped 132 points this week to close at 5,930, which was a loss of 2.19 percent over the past five trading days. On Monday afternoon, the market made its high of the week at 6,079. On Friday morning, the market made its low of 5,853.

The Dow was down 909 points over the past five trading days, which is a loss of 2.09 percent. At Friday’s close, the index stood at 42,840, which is a gain of 15.53 percent compared to this time last year. On Monday morning, the market made its high of the week at 43,900 while it made its weekly low of 42,164 on Friday morning.

Finally, the Nasdaq also lost 2.09 percent to close at 19,572. This week, the index made its high of 20,183 on Tuesday morning and made its low of the week of 19,201 on Friday morning.

This upcoming week is not going to be a busy one for market participants in the United States. As usual, Thursday sees the release of unemployment claims for the past seven days. Otherwise, the Christmas holiday means that Wall Street is going to take an extended break heading into the new year.

Market Perspective for December 15, 2024

Market Perspective for December 15, 2024

The two major pieces of information to come out this week were the inflation figures for November and the Price Producer Index (PPI) number for November.

On Wednesday, it was revealed that both traditional and core CPI were up .3 percent this past month, which was in line with expectations. In addition, inflation came in at 2.7 percent on an annualized basis, which was also what markets expected prior to the release. Annual inflation ticked up .1 percent since last month, but that fact is not considered enough to prevent another rate cut when the Fed meets later in December.

On Thursday, it was revealed that core PPI was up .2 percent on a monthly basis, which matched expectations. However, overall PPI figures were up .4 percent, which was higher than the anticipated .2 percent. Furthermore, the overall PPI number for last month was adjusted higher to .3 percent.

Also on Thursday, unemployment claims data for the last seven days was made available. Over that period, there were 242,000 requests for benefits compared to an expected 221,000. This data point was also cited as a reason why the Fed should still cut rates when it meets next week.

The S&P 500 lost 28 points this week to close at 6,051. This was a .47 percent drop over the past five trading days that saw the market do little more than meander between its high and low. On Tuesday morning, the S&P made its weekly low of 6,036 while it made its weekly high of 6,092 on Wednesday afternoon.

Like the S&P 500, the Dow gave up ground this week finishing 788 points lower than it started on Monday. That represented a 1.77 percent pullback for the index that closed the week at 43,828, The weekly high of 44,683 was established on Monday morning before it spent the rest of the week in freefall. On Friday morning, the market made its weekly low of 43,811.

Finally, the Nasdaq finished the week at 19,926, which was a gain of 90 points or .46 percent. The market would make its weekly low of 19,652 on Tuesday afternoon before reversing and making its weekly high of 20,041 on Wednesday afternoon. It would spend the rest of the week in a narrow trading range that sits near the index’s all-time high.

In international news, a number of central banks made interest rate decisions this week. Australia decided to keep its rate at 4.35 percent while Canada and Switzerland opted for cuts of 50 basis points. The Eurozone also opted to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.15 percent in what is seen as an effort to prepare economically for the upcoming Trump administration.

Next week is the final full trading week of 2024, and there will be several major news releases to look forward to. On Monday, the Flash Manufacturing and Flash Services PMI numbers will come out. On Tuesday, core and overall retail sales figures for November will be made public while the Fed reveals its December interest rate decision on Wednesday afternoon.

On Thursday, final GDP and unemployment claims figures are released while Friday sees the release of core PCE Price Index data for November. In addition, the University of Michigan releases its final consumer sentiment and inflation expectation data for the month.