Market Perspective for June 15, 2025

Market Perspective for June 15, 2025

The past week was an interesting one for market participants as a mixture of scheduled news releases and unscheduled events created significant volatility. Most notably, Isreal launched attacks on Iran late Thursday night into Friday morning that resulted in the deaths of high-ranking officials.

News of the attacks sent oil prices spiking nearly 13 percent to reach highs of over $75 in intraday trading on Friday. Gold prices were also higher while the stock prices of travel, energy and other companies in relevant industries moved wildly in early morning trading.

Tariff news also dominated headlines this week as the United States and China agreed to a draft trade deal. The main takeaways were that China would face a 55 percent tariff on most goods while the nation would also approve applications from American companies for magnets. It’s expected that the overall deal will make it easier for the United States to make use of rare Earth metals that are sourced from China.

Perhaps the biggest scheduled news event of the week occurred on Wednesday when the CPI report was released. In May, inflation was at 2.4 percent on an annualized basis, which was slightly lower than the predicted 2.5 percent. On a monthly basis, inflation was up .1 percent, which was also slightly lower than the predicted rise of .2 percent.

Prices also rose slower than anticipated in the month of May. On Thursday, it was revealed that the Price Producers Index (PPI) for that month showed an increase of .1 percent compared to an expected rise of .2 percent. Price change data from April was revised to show that prices had dropped by .2 percent during that month.

Unemployment claims data also came out on Thursday, and over the last seven days, there were 248,000 requests for benefits. This figure matched the one from the previous week and was about 6,000 claims higher than expected before the report came out.

On Friday, the University of Michigan released its consumer sentiment and inflation expectation reports. Consumer confidence came in at 60.5 compared to a projected 53.5 while inflation expectations were down to 5.1 percent from 6.6 percent a month ago.

For the week, the S&P 500 was down .51 percent to close at 5,976. This represented a drop of almost 31 points for the index that has been in a trading range for the past couple of weeks. The high of the week came on Wednesday when the market hit 6,058 while the low of the week came on Friday when the index hit 5,970.

The Dow was also down for the week closing off 1.27 percent to finish at 42,197. For the week, the index shaved 540 points and is currently up just .003 percent for the month of June. As with the S&P 500, the Dow made its high of the week on Wednesday of 43,105 before reversing and closing near its weekly low of 42,110 made on Friday morning.

Finally, the Nasdaq was down .91 percent to finish the week at 19,406. The index lost about 184 points this week, but it is still up about 5 percent for the month. The weekly high was made on Wednesday at 19,786 while the weekly low was made on Friday afternoon when the index dipped to 19,380.

In international news, China announced on Sunday that its inflation rate was in the negative for the month of May. On Thursday evening, Great Britain announced that its gross domestic product (GDP) fell by .3 percent in May.

This week is shaping up to be another interesting one for market participants as tariff and geopolitical tensions will likely continue to dominate headlines. However, investors should also keep an eye on retail sale data coming out on Tuesday and the Federal Reserve making its June interest rate decision on Wednesday. The Fed is expected to announce that it will keep rates at 4.5 percent and continue to pause until at least September. Japan, Great Britain and Switzerland will also announce rate decisions this upcoming week.

Market Perspective for June 8, 2025

Market Perspective for June 8, 2025

The first full trading week was another consequential one for the market. A few of the top stories involved the ADP payroll report falling below expectations while the report issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics was a mixed bag.

The other top story involved an online spat between Donald Trump and Elon Musk regarding Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill. Although the tit-for-tat seems to be more personal in nature, Musk did call for the Senate to kill the bill. Despite the public bickering, it seems as if markets are used to the turmoil as the three major indexes have largely recovered from their April lows.

On Monday, the first scheduled news release came out as the ISM Manufacturing PMI report was made available to the public. It came in at 48.5, which was slightly lower than last month and was about a full point below expectations.

On Tuesday, the JOLTS report was released and found that there were 7.39 million job openings in the country. This was higher than the expected 7.11 million openings and was also higher than last month’s reading of 7.2 million.

The ADP nonfarm payroll report came out Wednesday morning and found that there were 37,000 jobs added by employers in May. Analysts expected 111,000 new jobs, and the May figure was also lower than the 60,000 positions added in April. Also on Wednesday, the ISM Services PMI came in at 49.9, which was lower than the expected 52.

Unemployment claims data for the past seven days was made public on Thursday morning. For the past week, there were 247,000 claims compared to a projected 236,000.

Finally, on Friday, the BLS nonfarm payroll report said that the economy added 139,000 compared to a forecast of 126,000. However, this was still lower than last month’s figure, which was revised downward to 147,000. Average hourly earnings increased by .4 percent compared to an expected .3 percent while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2 percent as anticipated.

The S&P 500 closed above 6,000 this week for the first time since February. The index was up 99 points to close at 6,000.39 at the end of trading Friday. This represents a gain of 1.69 percent over the past five trading days, and over the past month, the index has appreciated 6.29 percent. The low of the week was established Monday morning when the market dipped to 5,864 while the high of 6,012 was made on Friday afternoon.

The Dow was also in the green this week finishing up 646 points to close at 42,762. The Dow followed the same pattern as the S&P 500 this week making its weekly low on Monday morning before reversing and making its high on Friday. The weekly range was 41,684 at the low end and 42,894 at the high end.

Finally, the Nasdaq was up 2.28 percent this week to close at 19,529. As with the other two major indexes, the Nasdaq made its low on Monday and closed near the high of the week. The low on Monday morning was 19,044 while the high of 19,593 was made on Thursday afternoon.

There were a few important releases coming from outside the United States. Tuesday night, Australia announced that gross domestic product growth was .2 percent in the first quarter compared to an expected .4 percent. On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada announced that it was keeping the country’s key interest rate steady at 2.75 percent. On Thursday, the European Union announced that the zone’s key interest rate would be cut from 2.4 percent to 2.15 percent.

The upcoming week will have inflation numbers made public on Wednesday and price data on Thursday. On Friday, the University of Michigan will release its consumer sentiment and inflation expectation reports.

Market Perspective for June 1, 2025

Market Perspective for June 1, 2025

The final trading week in May as conflicting court rulings surrounding tariffs created some temporary volatility. There were also a few scheduled news events that market participants were eagerly anticipating.

The first scheduled news announcement came out Tuesday morning when the CB Consumer Confidence report was issued. It found that sentiment rose significantly over the past month, jumping to 98 from 85.7 just a month ago.

On Wednesday afternoon, the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting were made public. The main takeaway is that officials are still unsure how tariffs will impact the economy. Although indications are that prices are not increasing in a meaningful way, there is still a possibility that economic conditions change rapidly. Therefore, FOMC members will likely have tough decisions regarding fiscal policy as they must choose to either accept data at face value or keep rates where they are to create long-term flexibility.

On Thursday, preliminary gross domestic product data for the first quarter came out. It revealed that the economy likely contracted by .2 percent during the first three months of the year. However, this beat expectations of a drop of .3 percent. Unemployment claims were also released Thursday morning and found that 240,000 requests for benefits were made compared to an expected 227,000.

Friday saw the release of the Core PCE Price Index, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. On a monthly basis, it increased by .1 percent, which was consistent with expectations. Meanwhile, the most recent consumer sentiment and inflation expectation reports were released by the University of Michigan. Consumer sentiment rose slightly to 52.2 from 50.8 last month while respondents believe that inflation will be at 6.6 percent in 12 months.

On Wednesday, the federal U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that tariffs issued per the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were invalid. The IEEPA was used to justify the reciprocal tariffs issued on April 2. However, the decision was reversed on appeal Thursday pending further legal action, and even if the injunction were to stand, the president would have other legal avenues to impose duties on foreign goods.

The S&P 500 was up 2.55 percent over the past five trading days to close at 5,911. This represents a gain of 147 points for the index that spent most of the week gaining ground. On Tuesday, it opened at its low of the week of 5,867 peaked on Wednesday at 5,933 following the release of the FOMC minutes.

The Dow was up 2.24 percent over the past five days to close at 42,270 on Friday. That represented a gain of 926 points for the index that remained stuck in a trading range after breaking out on Tuesday. The market made a low of 41,970 on Tuesday morning and a weekly high of 42,4426 on Wednesday.

Finally, the Nasdaq was up 2.38 percent over the last five trading days to finish at 19,113. The index made its high of the week on Thursday morning reaching 19,273 before reversing and hitting its low of the week 18,870 the following day.

In international news, Canada announced on Friday that its GDP was up by .1 percent on a monthly basis. On Tuesday night, Australia announced that its inflation rate was 2.4 percent on an annual basis. Also on Tuesday night, New Zealand announced that it was cutting its key interest rate from 3.5 percent to 3.25 percent.

The upcoming week is sure to be another interesting one for market participants as there will surely be more questions surrounding the implementation of tariffs. A few scheduled news announcements include the monthly nonfarm payroll readings in addition to the JOLTS report and a speech from Jerome Powell.

Market Perspective for May 25, 2025

Market Perspective for May 25, 2025

The final full trading week in May was another interesting one for market participants as a slew of news came out. Although there wasn’t a lot of scheduled news on the calendar, the passage of the Trump administration’s spending bill in the House was a dominant story that influenced equity markets. The Senate has already promised that there will be changes to the House version, so it’s unlikely that anything will pass for a few more days.

On Thursday, the first bit of scheduled news came out when the unemployment claims data for the past week was released. For the last seven days, there were 227,000 requests for benefits compared to an expected 230,000 requests.

The Flash Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.3 compared to an expected 49.9. This indicates that manufacturing has picked up in the United States. The Services PMI also came in above 50 with a reading of 52.3 for the month of April. This was also above expectations as analysts had predicted a reading of 51 for April.

On Friday, new home sales data was released, and during the previous month, there were 743,000 new homes sold. This was above the projected 694,000 and also more than the 670,000 such properties sold in March.

The S&P 500 lost 85 points this week, which was a loss of 1.44 percent. The market made a high of 5,964 on Monday afternoon before losing ground for most of the rest of the week. On Friday morning, it made a low of 5,771 before reversing and paring some of its losses.

Like the S&P 500, the Dow also closed lower this week losing 735 points to finish at 41,603 at the close of business Friday. This represented a loss of 1.73 percent for an index that has gained just over 8 percent for the month. The market made its weekly high of 42,810 on Monday afternoon before reversing and losing ground the reset of the week. It made a low of 41,404 on Friday morning.

Finally, the Nasdaq would also give up ground this week, closing 172 points lower on Friday compared to Monday’s open. The result was a .91 percent loss for the past five trading days. The market closed the week at 18,737 after ranging between a weekly high of 19,228 set on Wednesday and a weekly low of 18,606 set on Friday.

In international news, Canada announced on Friday that retail sales were up .8 percent on a monthly basis. Earlier in the week, Great Britain announced that inflation had accelerated to 3.5 percent on an annualized basis.

The upcoming week should be another consequential one. On Friday, the Core PCE index will be released, and it’s expected to show that inflation rose by .1 percent in April. FOMC meeting minutes as well as durable goods orders will be released as well.