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The Thanksgiving holiday resulted in relatively subdued markets in the United States. However, there were a few significant developments. On Tuesday, the minutes from the November FOMC meeting were released and provided some insight into what Fed officials are thinking.

According to those minutes, it’s unlikely that the Fed will move to cut rates anytime soon. Although inflation has dropped to 3.2 percent on an annual basis from 9 percent last year, it is still well above the central bank’s goal of 2 percent. There is some worry that strong GDP growth could result in inflation that is stubborn or accelerates. It’s unclear whether the Fed would actually raise rates further as it has been suggested that peak interest rates are already in place.

The Fed will meet again in December with most analysts believing that the Fed Funds Rate will remain in a range between 5.25 percent and 5.5 percent. In addition to the Fed minutes, a slew of data was released on Wednesday. For instance, there were 209,000 claims for unemployment benefits this week compared to a forecast of 226,000.

The revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report showed that sentiment was at 61.3 percent compared to a forecast of 61.1 percent. Inflation expectation for the year increased slightly to 4.5 percent compared to 4.4 percent last month.

Finally, on Friday, S&P Global released its Flash Manufacturing and Flash Services PMI. The manufacturing index came in at 49.4 while the services index came in at 50.8. These figures suggest that manufacturing is experiencing a minor contraction while the service sector is continuing to expand, which is in line with what has been happening in recent months. It is widely known that inflation and GDP figures have been buoyed by increased spending on services during the summer and fall of 2023.

The Dow spent most of the week in a stair step pattern as it would make new highs, consolidate and then continue moving to the upside. On Monday, the market opened at 34,936, which was also the low point of the abbreviated week. It would make a high of 35,389 on Friday morning before easing back to close the session. The Dow would finish the week up about 1 percent and is up 3.3 percent for the year.

The Nasdaq would spend most of the week in a narrow trading range. On Tuesday, the market made its low of the week at 14,154 and made a high of the week on Wednesday when it reached 14,355. Over the course of the last five trading days, the Nasdaq gained 140 points or 1 percent. For the year, the market is up 26.19 percent.

Finally, the S&P 500 would gain roughly 1 percent to finish the week at 4,555. On Monday, the market opened at 4,520 and would not give anything back for the rest of the week. It would make its weekly high of 4,561 on Wednesday afternoon. For the year, the S&P is up 528 points or 13.11 percent.

The upcoming week is poised to have significantly more volatility as traders are eager to get back to work after the holiday. On Tuesday, the Consumer Board (CB) Consumer Confidence report is issued while Wednesday sees the release of the initial GDP numbers for the previous quarter. Analysts expect that the economy expanded by 5 percent in the previous three months. Unemployment claim data will be released on Thursday while manufacturing price data will be released on Friday. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will also speak on Friday afternoon, which always has the potential to move markets.

Traders may also want to keep an eye out for inflation and GDP announcements coming from Canada, Australia and Europe. It’s not uncommon for an uptick in inflation or economic growth elsewhere in the world to have an impact on what the Fed might do. Therefore, understanding what is happening internationally may provide traders with insight as to how to best manage their own portfolios.

The week before the Thanksgiving holiday offered up some encouraging news for those looking for an end to interest rate hikes. On Tuesday, CPI data was released and showed that inflation on an annual basis dropped to 3.2 percent in October from 3.7 percent in September. It also showed that inflation on a monthly basis stayed flat in October compared to September. Core inflation was up .2 percent compared to .3 percent in the previous report. Core CPI refers to the inflation rate when not accounting for volatile items such as food and energy prices.

On Wednesday, it was revealed that the Price Producers Index (PPI) figure was -.5 percent for the month of October. Core PPI was flat for the month, which was the first time that prices minus food and energy costs failed to go up since April. Core retail sales were up .1 percent compared to .8 percent in September, which is another sign of a slowdown in consumer demand that Jerome Powell believes is likely necessary to keep inflation closer to 2 percent.

Also on Wednesday, the Empire State Manufacturing Index came out, which showed an uptick in production in that sector over the past month. The final figure was 9.1, which was significantly higher than the -3.3 forecast by analysts. It was also higher than the -4.6 recorded last month.

On Thursday, unemployment claims for the week were released, and over the past seven days, there were 231,000 requests for benefits. This was an increase of about 13,000 over the previous week and was about 10,000 more than analysts expected prior to the report’s release.

Friday saw the release of building permit data in the United States, and there were 1.49 million permits issued in the previous month. This was up from 1.47 million from October’s report, and it could have a minor impact on buyers as an increase in supply helps to ease the pressure on housing prices.

The Dow 30 was up 1.99 percent this week to close at 34,974. It started the week at its lowest point of 34,236 before surging on Tuesday to 34,913. It would then spend the rest of the week in a narrow range between Tuesday’s high and Friday’s close, which was also the high of the week for this market.

The Nasdaq would finish the week up 2.79 percent to close at 14,125. As with the Dow, the Nasdaq started the week at its lowest point, made a big move on Tuesday and then spent the final three trading days in a narrow range. Specifically, the Nasdaq made a low of 13,690 on Monday and a high of 14,186 on Wednesday.

Finally, the S&P 500 would make a gain of 2.43 percent this week to finish at 4,514. Like the other two major equity markets, the S&P 500 would make a low on Monday, make a significant gain on Tuesday and then level off for the rest of the week. The weekly low was 4,398 on Monday while the weekly high was 4,515 on Wednesday.

Oil would have an up-and-down week as it was as high as $80 a barrel on Monday before plummeting to roughly $73 a barrel by Thursday. It would then rebound on Friday to finish at $76.62. However, it is still down about $18 per barrel from its high of $94 in late September.

The upcoming week will feature a condensed schedule in the United States because of the Thanksgiving holiday. Markets will largely function as normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday before closing entirely on Thursday and by 1 p.m. on Friday. Unemployment claims data will be released on Wednesday instead of Thursday while FOMC meeting minutes will be released on Tuesday instead of Wednesday. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment and inflation expectations reports will also be released on Wednesday instead of Friday.

Friday morning also sees the release of Flash Manufacturing Services PMI and Manufacturing PMI data. Inflation, employment and other important news releases are also expected to be released in Canada, Australia and the United Kingdom throughout the week. Analysts expect these reports to show that inflation is stabilizing throughout the world, which could have an impact on the Fed’s upcoming December rate decision.

The first full week of November was a relatively quiet one with only a couple of major news releases on the calendar. However, it was not without intrigue as some members of the Fed said that interest rates could continue to rise if inflation remained a problem that couldn’t be solved by other means.

On Wednesday morning, Jerome Powell said that the Fed needed to be flexible in its approach and rely on common sense as much as it relies on data. He cautioned that the economy is dynamic and that economic shocks can happen without warning that may make it necessary to raise or lower rates accordingly.

During another speech on Thursday afternoon, he said that the Fed was not ready to say that the United States had reached its peak interest rate. The Fed Funds rate is currently in a range between 5.25 percent and 5.5 percent, which is the highest it has been in more than two decades.

Powell then seemed to hedge his bets by also mentioning that improvements in the supply side could help to tame wage and price increases. Most are still in agreement that interest rates will remain where they are for quite some time, which could mean most or all of 2024. Last month, it was revealed that the inflation rate in the United States was 3.7 percent, which is still significantly higher than the 2 percent target rate. However, it is significantly lower than the 9.1 percent in July of 2022.

On Thursday, unemployment claim data was released and revealed that 220,000 people had filed for benefits, which was up from 218,000 a week ago. On Friday, the University of Michigan released its preliminary consumer sentiment and inflation expectation figures. Consumer sentiment was at 60.4 percent, which was down from 63.8 percent a month ago. Analysts had expected the preliminary number to be 63.7 percent. In addition, consumers expect that the inflation rate will be 4.4 percent a year from now, which is up from 4.2 percent a month ago.

The Dow would finish the week up 183 points to finish at 34,283. It would spend the majority of the week in the red before a strong Friday saw the market gain 391 points to allow it to finish in positive territory. The market made a weekly low of 33,873 on Thursday before reversing and closing at a peak of the week.

The Nasdaq also finished the week higher thanks to a strong performance on Friday. For the week, the Nasdaq was up 2 percent to close at 13,798, and almost all of that was thanks to a 276-point gain on the closing day of the week. On Monday, the Nasdaq made its low for the week at 13,490 before reversing and staying in a trading range until Friday.

Finally, the S&P 500 was up 1.15 percent this week to close at 4,415. As with the other two major indices, the S&P 500 finished in the green thanks to a strong close on Friday that saw the market gain 1.56 percent or 67.89 points. The S&P 500 hit its low of the week on Thursday at 4,347 before reversing and moving higher. Prior to Thursday and Friday’s strong move, the market spent most of the week in a narrow range.

Oil prices continued their decline that began in October this week as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell to about $78 compared to almost $90 just a few weeks ago. Prices dipped to as low as $75 during overnight trading on Friday before rebounding. This has been largely the opposite of what some had expected at the outset of the conflict between Hamas and Israel.

There will a number of significant news announcements coming up this week as CPI, PPI and retail sales figures are set to be released. Analysts are expecting inflation to have eased to 3.3 percent on an annualized basis while prices are expected to have risen .1 percent. Analysts also expect that retail sales will shrink by .2 percent, which would likely have some effect on inflation figures going forward. In addition, inflation and employment reports are also going to be released in Australia and Great Britain, which could influence policy in the United States.