Market Perspective for September 24, 2023

Market Perspective for September 24, 2023

The third week of September was a busy one, with several key news releases came out between Wednesday and Friday. Of course, the main event for the week was the Federal Reserve’s September meeting. The purpose of the meeting was to determine whether to increase the Fed funds rate or to keep it steady. Ultimately, the Fed decided to stay the course and keep it at 5.5 percent until at least November.

While the Fed has kept the possibility of another rate hike on the table, it’s unclear if further hiking will be necessary. According to Jerome Powell, future decisions will be dependent on data that shows price pressures easing in many sectors of the economy. According to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement released at 2 p.m. Wednesday, a labor slowdown and tightening credit conditions may also contain future growth.

On Thursday, unemployment claims data was released, and it was revealed that 201,000 people filed for benefits in the past week. This was below the 224,000 predicted by analysts and the 221,000 claims filed one week ago. However, it’s worth noting that the 221,000 figure was revised upward from 217,000 at the time that figure was released on Sept. 14.

The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index was also released on Thursday and came in a -13.5 compared to analyst expectations of -1.1. This indicates a slowdown in the manufacturing sector in that part of the country, which could be a sign that a slowdown is coming to other parts of the country.

Finally on Thursday, existing home sales data was released and showed that 4.04 million sales took place in the past month. Analysts expected 4.07 million sales to occur, and in August, there were 4.10 million existing homes sold. Higher mortgage interest rates are cited as the main reason for the sluggish figure.

On Friday, Flash Services PMI and Flash Manufacturing PMI figures were released. The Flash Services Index came in at 50.2 percent, which was down slightly from 50.5 percent in August and was slightly lower than the 50.7 percent predicted by analysts prior to the report’s release.

Manufacturing PMI figures were slightly lower at 48.9 percent. However, this was higher than the 48.2 percent predicted by analysts and the 47.9 percent figure from last month. This indicates that manufacturing demand is holding steady while demand for services is weakening somewhat.

The S&P 500 finished the week down 119 points to finish at 4,320, which was a 2.69 percent drop. On Monday, the market made its high of the week at 4,465 and stayed in a tight range before the Fed announcement. Afterward, the market spent the rest of the week trending lower before finishing Friday at a daily and weekly low.

As with the S&P, the Nasdaq also finished the week significantly lower having lost 476 points to close Friday at 13,211. This was a 3.48 percent loss compared to Monday’s open of 13,691, which also happened to be close to the high of the week. The actual high of 13,749 was reached on Monday afternoon, and the market would remain near that level until Wednesday. After a significant drop on Wednesday, the market would make its low of the week of 13,210 on Thursday morning.

Finally, the Dow 30 would finish the week at 33,963, which represented a loss of 654 points since Monday’s open. Unlike the other two major indices, the Dow would make its high of the week on Wednesday at 34,793 just prior to the Fed’s announcement. From there, the Dow would reverse course and continue to fall through the closing bell on Friday.

This upcoming week is relatively light on news coming out of the United States. On Tuesday, the Consumer Board (CB) Consumer Confidence Index is set to be released while Thursday sees the release of final GDP figures for the last quarter. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is scheduled to speak at 4 p.m. on Thursday, which will likely have traders on edge looking for clues about future interest rate decisions. Finally, Core Price PCE Index numbers will be revealed on Friday in addition to revised consumer sentiment and inflation expectation figures from the University of Michigan.

Market Perspective for September 16, 2023

Market Perspective for September 16, 2023

The second full week of September featured several news releases that will help shape the narrative around what the Fed might do during its meeting on Sept. 22. On Wednesday, it was revealed that the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by .3 percent on a monthly basis while inflation including food and energy prices rose by .6 percent on a monthly basis in August. The inflation rate was 3.7 percent on a yearly basis, and all three inflation measures came in higher than analysts expected prior to their release.

On Thursday, it was revealed that both core and traditional retail sales were up .6 percent for the previous month. The Price Producer Index (PPI) for the month of August also went up by .7 percent, which was higher than the .4 percent predicted in the days prior to the report’s release.

In addition, unemployment claims data was released, and it was revealed that 220,000 claims were filed. This was higher than the number of claims filed last week but still lower than the 226,000 expected by analysts. Higher energy prices were cited as the reason for the increase in inflation while the rising costs of goods and services were cited as the reason for the increase in overall prices and retail sales.

On Friday, the Empire State Manufacturing Index was released and came in at 1.9, which was much higher than the -9.9 that was expected. It was also significantly higher than the -19 reported last month. What this means is that there was an expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month as opposed to a continued contraction.

Finally, Friday saw the release of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations reports. Consumer sentiment came in at 67.7, with inflation was expected to be at 3.1 percent at this time next year. However, as this was merely preliminary data, there is a good chance that the actual figures will vary when released later in the month.

Taken as a whole, the news suggests that the economy is still growing and that it may be too early to consider an end to rate hikes. While it’s still likely that the Fed decides not to hike rates when it meets next week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said that future decisions will depend on the data. There is a belief that the Fed will telegraph the possibility that the next hike will be the last one in the current cycle during the press conference also scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.

The S&P 500 was contained within a tight range on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday before breaking out on Thursday. On Thursday afternoon, the market made a high of 4,509 before reversing to finish at 4,450 at the end of trading Friday. That represented the low of a week in which the market finished down .84 percent.

The Dow 30 was down .34 percent this week finishing at 34,618. Like the S&P, it spent most of the week in a consolidated range making a low of 34,540 on Wednesday and a high of 34,941 on Thursday. For the year, the Dow is up 11.48 percent and is within 1,000 points of its 52-week high.

Finally, the Nasdaq was down 178 points this week, which was a loss of 1.28 percent over the last five trading days. The market finished the week at 13,708, which was slightly higher than the low of 13,704 that was made on Friday morning. As with the other two major indices, the Nasdaq would make its weekly high on Thursday at 13,951.

Treasury bond yields were up across the board this week as markets digested the myriad of news releases. The rate for the two-year Treasury bond is currently 5.03 percent while the 10-year bond is sitting at 4.29 percent. Tracking bond yields can be an effective barometer of where the Fed may be going as they often serve as an indication of where rates are heading during a given time period.

The upcoming week is going to be a significant one for traders and investors alike. Of course, the main event is that Fed’s rate decision that will be released at approximately 2 p.m. on Wednesday. Thursday will see the release of unemployment claims while Friday sees the release of Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI figures.

Market Perspective for September 10, 2023

Market Perspective for September 10, 2023

The first full week of September was a sluggish one in terms of news releases. This was partially because of the Labor Day holiday as well as the fact that there will be several important releases coming up. For instance, CPI numbers will be released this Wednesday while the Federal Reserve is holding its next interest rate meeting on the 20th.

Of course, this doesn’t mean that there weren’t any key developments this week. On Wednesday, the ISM Services PMI data was released, and the index came in at 54.5 percent, which was higher than the 52.5 percent that was expected. Furthermore, it was higher than the 52.7 percent from last month’s report. Any number over 50 indicates that a sector is experiencing a period of expansion, and the increase from last month shows that the service sector is expanding at an exponential rate.

Increased demand for services has been cited as a reason why core inflation numbers have yet to fall below 3 percent on an annual basis. It has also been cited as a reason why the Federal Reserve has not ruled out further interest rate hikes this year. Currently, the Fed Funds rate is in a range between 5.25 percent and 5.5 percent. It is worth noting that the Fed is not expected to increase rates at the September meeting.

This would be in line with decisions by the central banks of Australia and Canada last week to hold their rates steady for the time being. Several Fed members have said that it would be appropriate to pause in September and let the data decide whether another rate hike should be executed.

Thursday saw the release of unemployment claims data for the previous week. During that period, there were 216,000 claims made for assistance compared to 229,000 the previous week. This figure was less than the 232,000 claims that analysts believed had been made during the seven days prior to the report coming out.

The S&P 500 was down 1.76 percent this week to finish at 4,457. On Tuesday, the market made a high of 4,507 before trending down to 4,435 on Thursday morning. Although the week was a net loser for those with exposure to this index, the week did finish on a positive note as it gained a little more than six points on Friday.

Like the S&P, the Nasdaq had a rough week as it declined by 2.61 percent to finish at 13,761. It would make a high of 14,053 on Tuesday before spending the next three days in a freefall. On Thursday morning, the market fell to 13,679, which was the low for the week. Despite the poor performance last week, the Nasdaq is up over 16 percent for the year.

Compared to the other two major indices, the Dow had a relatively good week falling only 1 percent to close the week at 34,576. It would reach its high of the week Tuesday morning at 34,791 and would reach a low of 34,318 on Wednesday morning. From there, the market stayed in a relatively tight trading range on Thursday and Friday.

Although CPI data will be the highlight of the upcoming week, there will be a number of other important releases over the next several days. Thursday morning sees the release of PPI and retail sales figures, which will provide more insight into how consumers are reacting to higher prices.

The Empire State Manufacturing Index will be released on Friday as well as the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations data. Consumer sentiment is expected to have decreased to 69.2 compared to 69.5 in August.