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The first week of October was interesting as a government shutdown was averted with hours to spare. That meant that a variety of important news releases were released at their scheduled times. Of course, the main event this week was the release of nonfarm payroll figures on Friday morning.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), companies added 336,000 jobs over the past month. This was well above the 171,000 forecast prior to the news release and the 227,000 added in August. The positive number elevated concerns on Wall Street that another interest rate hike may be on the table in November or December. However, some insiders also acknowledged that strong jobs numbers may also signal a greater chance at a soft landing.

A soft landing refers to the possibility that the economy can avoid a recession during a period of fiscal tightening. Even if rates stay where they are, guidance from the Fed has suggested that they will remain elevated for some time, which may influence equity prices and the overall economy moving forward.

The ADP nonfarm employment change report was released on Wednesday and revealed that employers had added 89,000 new jobs in the past month. This was significantly lower than the forecast of 154,000 new jobs and the 180,000 jobs created during the month of August.

In other news, the ISM Manufacturing PMI figure was released on Monday and came in at 49 percent. This was higher than the forecast of 47.8 percent and was also higher than last month’s figure of 47.6 percent. On Wednesday, the ISM Services PMI was released and came in at 53.6 percent, which was roughly in line with expectations.

On Tuesday, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) came out and revealed that there were 9.61 million available jobs in the United States as of September 2023. That figure represented an increase from 8.83 million last month and was higher than the 8.81 million figure projected by analysts prior to the release.

On Thursday, unemployment claim figures were released, and there were 207,000 requests for benefits during the previous seven days. This was slightly higher than the 205,000 claims from the previous report and lower than the 211,000 that analysts had expected to see.

On Friday, average monthly earnings and unemployment figures for September were released. Average hourly earnings increased by .2 percent in September, which was slightly lower than expected. The unemployment rate came in at 3.8 percent, which was the same as it was in August.

The Dow was up 43 points this week to finish at 33,407. For most of the week, the market stayed in a tight range 32,885 and 33,120 before breaking out on Friday after the nonfarm payroll report was released. On Friday, the Dow hit its weekly high of 33,550 before easing back in the afternoon.

The S&P 500 finished the week up 40 points to close at 4,308. Like the Dow, the S&P spent the week in a tight range before breaking out on Friday. During the final session of the week, the market hit its weekly high of 4,325 and also made its weekly low of 4,220.

Finally, the Nasdaq finished the week at up 175 points at 13,431. Unlike the other two markets, the Nasdaq would finish the week at its highest point. On Tuesday, the Nasdaq made its low of the week at 13,019.

The upcoming week will have a quiet start as Monday is the Columbus Day holiday. However, important releases are scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday as both price and inflation data are scheduled to be made public. Analysts are expecting yearly CPI to come in at 3.6 percent, which would be slightly less than the 3.7 percent figure for August. Monthly CPI is expected to be .3 percent, which would represent a 50 percent drop from last month’s .6 percent reading. Finally, the University of Michigan will release its preliminary inflation and consumer sentiment reports on Friday morning.

The markets were mixed this week as investors prepared for a government shutdown.  It took until Saturday to avert, but a short-term agreement will keep the government open through mid-November.

On Tuesday, the CB Consumer Confidence Index came in at 103, which was down 108.7 last month and lower than the projected 105.5. Tuesday morning also saw the release of the Richmond Manufacturing Index, which came in at five compared to negative seven last month. Analysts had expected the index to come in at negative six.

Finally on Tuesday, new home sales over the past month declined to 675,000 from 739,000 last month. However, it was also revealed that prices for single-family homes rose .1 percent over the month.

On Thursday, final quarter GDP figures for the second quarter of 2023 revealed that the economy grew by 2.1 percent over the months of April, May and June. This was the same as the first quarter of 2023 but was lower than the 2.2 percent growth analysts had expected to see. Unemployment benefit claim numbers were also released on Thursday, and over the past seven days, 204,000 people filed for benefits compared to 202,000 a week ago.

On Friday, the Chicago PMI report was released and came in at 44.1 percent, which was lower than 48.7 percent last month. Analysts had predicted that the report would come in at 47.5 percent. Also on Friday, the University of Michigan released its consumer sentiment and inflation expectation surveys. Consumer sentiment improved to 68.1 percent while respondents believed that inflation would be at 3.2 percent at this time next year.

The Dow 30 lost 393 points this week to finish at 33,507, which represented a decline of 1.16 percent over the last five trading days. On Monday, the index made a high of 33,980 before reversing and trending lower until Wednesday afternoon when it hit its weekly low of 33,345. On Thursday and Friday, the market stayed in a tight trading range meandering between 33,511 and 33,823.

Unlike the Dow, the Nasdaq finished up .09 percent for the week after closing at 13,219. On Wednesday, the Nasdaq made its weekly low at 12,981 before spending the rest of the week trending upward and hitting its weekly high of 13,357 on Friday morning.

Finally, the S&P 500 lost 29 points over the trading week to finish at 4,288. This was a drop of .66 percent over the past five trading days, and it followed a path like the Dow and Nasdaq to get there. On Monday, it hit its high for the week of 4,335 before nose diving and making a low of 4,242 on Wednesday.

A number of reports are scheduled to be released this week. On Monday, the ISM Manufacturing PMI report is set to be made public while the ISM Services PMI will be made public on Wednesday. Also on Wednesday, the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change numbers for the previous month are set to come out.

On Friday, average hourly earnings, the unemployment rate and the nonfarm payroll employment change figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will all come out. Christopher Waller, who is a member of the FOMC, is also scheduled to speak Friday. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on Monday, which will likely provide guidance to the markets prior to Waller’s speech.

The third week of September was a busy one, with several key news releases came out between Wednesday and Friday. Of course, the main event for the week was the Federal Reserve’s September meeting. The purpose of the meeting was to determine whether to increase the Fed funds rate or to keep it steady. Ultimately, the Fed decided to stay the course and keep it at 5.5 percent until at least November.

While the Fed has kept the possibility of another rate hike on the table, it’s unclear if further hiking will be necessary. According to Jerome Powell, future decisions will be dependent on data that shows price pressures easing in many sectors of the economy. According to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement released at 2 p.m. Wednesday, a labor slowdown and tightening credit conditions may also contain future growth.

On Thursday, unemployment claims data was released, and it was revealed that 201,000 people filed for benefits in the past week. This was below the 224,000 predicted by analysts and the 221,000 claims filed one week ago. However, it’s worth noting that the 221,000 figure was revised upward from 217,000 at the time that figure was released on Sept. 14.

The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index was also released on Thursday and came in a -13.5 compared to analyst expectations of -1.1. This indicates a slowdown in the manufacturing sector in that part of the country, which could be a sign that a slowdown is coming to other parts of the country.

Finally on Thursday, existing home sales data was released and showed that 4.04 million sales took place in the past month. Analysts expected 4.07 million sales to occur, and in August, there were 4.10 million existing homes sold. Higher mortgage interest rates are cited as the main reason for the sluggish figure.

On Friday, Flash Services PMI and Flash Manufacturing PMI figures were released. The Flash Services Index came in at 50.2 percent, which was down slightly from 50.5 percent in August and was slightly lower than the 50.7 percent predicted by analysts prior to the report’s release.

Manufacturing PMI figures were slightly lower at 48.9 percent. However, this was higher than the 48.2 percent predicted by analysts and the 47.9 percent figure from last month. This indicates that manufacturing demand is holding steady while demand for services is weakening somewhat.

The S&P 500 finished the week down 119 points to finish at 4,320, which was a 2.69 percent drop. On Monday, the market made its high of the week at 4,465 and stayed in a tight range before the Fed announcement. Afterward, the market spent the rest of the week trending lower before finishing Friday at a daily and weekly low.

As with the S&P, the Nasdaq also finished the week significantly lower having lost 476 points to close Friday at 13,211. This was a 3.48 percent loss compared to Monday’s open of 13,691, which also happened to be close to the high of the week. The actual high of 13,749 was reached on Monday afternoon, and the market would remain near that level until Wednesday. After a significant drop on Wednesday, the market would make its low of the week of 13,210 on Thursday morning.

Finally, the Dow 30 would finish the week at 33,963, which represented a loss of 654 points since Monday’s open. Unlike the other two major indices, the Dow would make its high of the week on Wednesday at 34,793 just prior to the Fed’s announcement. From there, the Dow would reverse course and continue to fall through the closing bell on Friday.

This upcoming week is relatively light on news coming out of the United States. On Tuesday, the Consumer Board (CB) Consumer Confidence Index is set to be released while Thursday sees the release of final GDP figures for the last quarter. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is scheduled to speak at 4 p.m. on Thursday, which will likely have traders on edge looking for clues about future interest rate decisions. Finally, Core Price PCE Index numbers will be revealed on Friday in addition to revised consumer sentiment and inflation expectation figures from the University of Michigan.