The Investor Guide to Vanguard Funds for July is AVAILABLE NOW! Links to the July data files are posted below. Market Perspective: Small-Cap & Industrial Stocks Rally Equities slowed their […]

The Investor Guide to Vanguard Funds for July is AVAILABLE NOW! Links to the July data files are posted below. Market Perspective: Small-Cap & Industrial Stocks Rally Equities slowed their […]
Last week provided a number of clues as to the strength of the economy as well as what the Federal Reserve will do during their July meeting. On Wednesday morning, monthly CPI and Core CPI data was released. On a monthly basis, Core CPI fell from .4 percent to .2 percent, which beat analyst expectations of a .3 percent increase. The Core CPI data takes into account everything except for food and energy prices as they tend to be more volatile.
Normal CPI increased .2 percent over the previous month, which was higher than the .1 percent reading issued in June but lower than the .3 percent increase predicted by economists. The yearly CPI figure was 3 percent, which was lower than the 4 percent reading issued in June and also lower than the 3.1 percent predicted by analysts.
Unemployment claims data was also released on Thursday morning, and they showed that there were fewer claims this week compared to last. Over the last seven days, 237,000 people filed for unemployment benefits, which was down from 249,000 a week ago and lower than the estimated 251,000 claims.
On Friday, the University of Michigan released its consumer sentiment and inflation expectation reports. Consumer sentiment improved to 72.6 from 64.4 in June, which is the highest figure in almost two years. However, inflation expectations did increase to 3.4 percent from 3.3 percent compared to a month ago.
Currently, there are a mixture of opinions coming from the Fed as to what should happen in two weeks when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets. Some believe that another rate hike is warranted regardless of what happens the rest of the month. Those who share that view have cited stubbornly high food and rent prices as well as the possibility that the decrease in inflation is an artifact in the data. In other words, inflation data may only look good because it is being compared to extremely high price increases from the previous year.
The S&P 500 finished up 2.27 percent this week to finish at 4,505. The market started at the low of the week on Monday and steadily climbed on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. The market peaked on Friday morning at 4,524 before easing back to its final price.
The Nasdaq was up 3.42 percent this week to finish at 14,113. Like the S&P 500, the Nasdaq would bottom out on Monday morning at 13,592 before steadily climbing until hitting 14,216 on Friday morning.
Finally, the Dow 30 would finish the week up 2 percent at 34,509. As with the other major indices, the Dow would make a low on Monday before steadily climbing for the rest of the week. However, unlike the other two indices, the Dow would make a high of 34,545 on Wednesday before settling into a trading range on Thursday and Friday.
Next week sees the release of several important news items starting with the Empire State Manufacturing survey on Monday morning. Retail sales data is set to be released on Tuesday while the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is set to be released on Thursday along with weekly unemployment claims data. Finally, existing home sales data is expected to be released on Thursday, which may give more clues as to the state of the economy.
The Investor Guide to Fidelity Funds for July 2023 is AVAILABLE NOW! July Data Files Are Posted Below Market Perspective: Stocks Continue Rebound from 2022 Losses Equities extended their rally in […]
The first full week of July started off slowly as Americans celebrated the Fourth of July holiday. However, the week also featured the release of the most recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes as well as a slew of jobs and earnings data on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.
The week would start with the release of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI and Manufacturing Prices surveys. The ISM Manufacturing PMI survey came in at 46 percent, which was lower than the 47.2 percent analysts expected. The ISM Manufacturing Prices survey came in at 41.8 percent, which was also lower than analysts expected. Both figures suggest that the manufacturing sector is expected to contract in the coming months.
On Wednesday afternoon, the FOMC minutes from June’s meeting were released. The minutes revealed that almost all voting members thought that there would be a need for at least one or two more hikes in the second half of the year. It was noted that strong jobs numbers supported the idea that the economy would continue to stay hot, which would lead to higher wage growth.
As wages increase, individuals feel better about spending more for goods and services, therefore, the threat of inflation above 2 percent is an issue that the Fed is eager to address. It was also revealed that the FOMC members preferred to call their choice not to raise rates in June a skip as opposed to a true pause.
On Thursday morning, the ADP nonfarm employment change figure for June was released. It showed that the economy added 497,000 jobs during the period, which was well above the forecast of 226,000 jobs. This added further ammunition for those who want to increase rates in July or at some point in the coming months. The federal funds rate currently stands at 5 percent to 5.25 percent.
Also on Thursday, unemployment claims were shown to have risen to 248,000 from 236,000 a week ago. The ISM Services PMI survey came in at 53.6 percent, which was higher than 51.3 percent projected by economists prior to the survey’s release. Finally, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) found that there were 9.82 million available positions, which was a decrease from 10.32 million last month.
On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that the unemployment rate had ticked down to 3.6 percent from 3.7 percent last month. Finally, average monthly earnings increased by .4 percent compared to analysts expectations of a .3 percent increase.
The Dow 30 lost just over 550 points this week, which was a loss of 1.61 percent over the past five trading days. The market stayed relatively flat on Monday and Tuesday before dipping slightly on Wednesday. It then took a sharp nosedive on Thursday and Friday where it closed at the weekly low of 33,734.
The S&P 500 was down a little over 29 points this week to finish at 4,398. It spent the first half of the week in a tight trading range before breaking out on Thursday and hitting the weekly low of 4,385. Bulls would take over for the first half of the day Friday before giving up ground during the afternoon.
Finally, the Nasdaq was down .5 percent this week to finish at 13,660. As with the S&P 500, the Nasdaq was flat for most of the week before trending sharply lower on Thursday. The market would bottom out at 13,571 before trending slightly higher on Friday.
This week, the calendar features only a handful of news releases, but they may determine what the Fed does prior to its meeting in late July. On Wednesday morning, monthly and yearly CPI numbers will be released while monthly core CPI figures will also be released. Core CPI tracks changes in prices without accounting for food and energy costs, which tend to be vulnerable to high levels of volatility.
In addition, Thursday sees the release of monthly PPI and core PPI figures as well as unemployment claims. On Friday, the preliminary consumer sentiment and inflation expectations will be released by the University of Michigan.
The final full week of June provided investors with a slew of information to help them discern where the market may be heading over the coming weeks and months. On Tuesday, it was revealed that there was a .6 percent increase in monthly core durable goods orders compared to an estimate of flat growth since May’s report was released. Furthermore, core durable goods orders over that same period were up 1.7 percent, which was significantly higher than the .8 percent decline forecast by market experts.
The Conference Board also issued its consumer confidence index on Tuesday morning, and the final figure was 109.7, which was an increase from 102.5 in May. Finally, investors found out on Tuesday that new home sales had increased to 763,000 compared to 680,000 last month. This may suggest that home prices will remain steady or continue to climb during the summer, which could be both good and bad for the economy. On the plus side, additional home sales are likely a sign of economic strength, but that strength may force the Fed to increase interest rates again.
On Wednesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated during a panel event that multiple hikes may be on the table this year. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet on July 26, and even if a hike doesn’t occur, Powell said that rates haven’t been restrictive for long enough to think about rate cuts.
Thursday morning saw the release of gross domestic product (GDP) data, which was better than expected. During the second quarter, it was believed that the economy grew by 1.4 percent, but the Thursday report showed that growth was actually 2 percent during that period. The GDP price index report showed an annualized increase of 4.1 percent during the second quarter. Ultimately, this means that the cost of goods and services that are included when calculating GDP figures increased.
Unemployment data for the past week was also revealed on Thursday, and over the past seven days, 239,000 filed for benefits, which was lower than the 265,000 filed last week. It was also lower than the estimate of 264,000 claims.
Two more news reports were released on Friday that did little to clear a muddled economic picture. The PCE core price index found that prices increased .3 percent over the past month, which was unchanged from the month prior and slightly lower than analyst expectations. Revised University of Michigan consumer sentiment found that consumers were slightly more hopeful about the future as the figure for June was 64.4 instead of the original figure of 63.9. However, revised consumer inflation expectations found that Americans expected inflation to be at 3.3 percent within a year as opposed to the 3.1 percent figure that was released earlier in June.
Equity markets largely trended higher throughout the week as the Dow 30 finished up 1.9 percent to finish at 34,407. The Dow started the week at 33,791 before hitting its weekly low of 33,668 on Monday morning. From there, it was a steady climb to the high as positive economic news had investors clamoring to put their money into companies represented on the index.
The Nasdaq was up a little over 2 percent for the week after ending Friday’s session at 13,787. As with the Dow, the Nasdaq hit its weekly low on Monday before generally grinding higher the rest of the week.
Finally, the S&P 500 was up 2.22 percent to finish the week at 4,450. As with the other major American indices, it would find support for the week on Monday afternoon at 4,329.
This upcoming week is expected to be backloaded due to the Fourth of July holiday. On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes will be released while job openings and wage data will be released on Thursday and Friday.