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The final full trading week in August was another eventful one, with several important news releases coming out. Most importantly, nothing has ruled out the possibility of an interest rate cut next month. In fact, some Fed members were openly admitting that the time had come to ease fiscal policy.

On Tuesday, the CB Consumer Confidence index was released and came in at 103.3, which was higher than the expected 100.9. It also came in higher than last month’s figure of 101.9. Ultimately, this means that respondents were bullish about what was to come for the economy despite the negative news released the previous week. Last Wednesday, it was revealed that there were 818,000 fewer jobs added to the economy from April 2023 to May 2024.

On Thursday, the preliminary gross domestic product (GDP) for the previous quarter was made public. During the previous three months, the economy grew by an estimated 3 percent compared to an expected increase of 2.8 percent. Also on Thursday, unemployment claim data was released and showed that there were 231,000 requests for benefits compared to an expected 232,000 requests.

On Friday, a slew of data was released including the Core PCE Price Index, which was up .2 percent on a monthly basis. This matched expectations as well as the result from last month’s report. In addition, the University of Michigan released its revised consumer sentiment and inflation expectation reports. Consumer sentiment was 67.9 percent compared to an expected 68 percent while inflation was expected to be at 2.8 percent roughly 12 months from now.

The S&P 500 finished the week down 6.74 points to close at 5,648, which was a decrease of .12 percent for the week. This was despite a strong close on Friday that saw the market gain 56 points or 1 percent. On Wednesday, the market made its low of the week at 5,566 and would make its high of the week on Monday morning at 5,649.

The Dow closed the week up 199.64 points to finish at 41,563, which was an increase of .48 percent. On Friday, the Dow 222 points to push the index into the black for the previous five trading days. On Wednesday afternoon, the market hit its low of the week at 40,861 while it closed at its weekly high.

The Nasdaq finished the week at 17,713, which was a decrease of 264 points or 1.48 percent. As with the other two indexes, the Nasdaq did make up some ground on Friday as it finished the day up 1.13 percent or 197 points. On Monday, the market opened at its weekly high of 17,902 and it would make a weekly low of 17,473 on Wednesday afternoon.

In international news, Australia announced its most recent annual CPI figures. Inflation in the country was 3.5 percent on an annualized basis compared to an expectation of 3.4 percent. On Thursday, it was revealed that German CPI was down .1 percent on a monthly basis while Spanish inflation was 2.2 percent on an annualized basis.

On Thursday evening, Japan announced its CPI came in at 2.4 percent on an annualized basis compared to an expected 2.2 percent. On Friday morning, Canada announced that its GDP growth was flat over the past month compared to an expected increase of .1 percent.

The upcoming week starts slow because of the Labor Day holiday, but both the ADP and Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) nonfarm payroll (NFP) reports come out on Thursday and Friday respectively.

On Tuesday, the ISM Manufacturing PMI report is released while the JOLTS job opening report comes out on Wednesday. Finally, unemployment claims data and ISM Services PMI comes out on Friday along with unemployment and hourly wage data. Canada will also announce employment change and hourly wage data on Friday morning.

The third week in August revealed a significant amount of information that will likely shape monetary policy for months to come. Perhaps the most important bit of news was a severe downgrade in the number of jobs added to the economy during the months of April 2023 to March 2024. It was revealed that there were likely 818,000 fewer jobs added than were reported.

This caused most major indexes, currencies and other markets to move significantly on Wednesday morning before settling back to where they were before the news came out. It was explained that the discrepancy was found when reconciling jobless claim reports over that period. Assuming that the new data is correct, it means that the economy was not nearly as hot as some believed it to be during the first part of 2024.

A slowing labor market will likely help to provide relief against inflation, and it will also likely convince the Fed to start cutting interest rates quickly. In fact, on Friday, Jerome Powell said that the time for cutting interest rates had come. The only question remaining is how fast and how deep the cuts will be. It’s assumed that a 25-basis point cut is coming in September at a minimum.

Of course, some believe that there is a need for a cut of 50 points in September and another 50 points over the next several months. Regardless, it does mark a turning point from just a couple of weeks ago when some members weren’t convinced that a cut would come before the end of the year.

There were a few noteworthy scheduled news releases this week starting on Wednesday when the FOMC released the July meeting minutes. The overall tone was described as dovish with many members tuning into the idea of a rate cut in September. However, until Powell’s comments on Friday, there was no indication that a cut was to be expected at any point in time.

On Thursday, unemployment claims data was released, and over the past seven days, there were 232,000 claims for benefits, which was in line with analyst expectations. Also on Thursday, the Flash Services and Flash Manufacturing PMI were released. The manufacturing index came in at 48 percent compared to an expected 49.5 percent while the services index came in at 55.2 percent compared to an expected 54 percent.

The S&P 500 closed up 58.41 points this week to finish at 5,634. It made its high and low of the week on Thursday hitting a peak of 5,638 and a low of 5,565 before reversing course into Friday.

The Dow finished the week up 374 points to close at 41,175. It would make its low of the week on Thursday morning when it dipped to 40,602 and would hit its high on Friday morning at 41,188. Over the past 12 months, the Dow has gained over 19 percent.

Finally, the Nasdaq ended the week up 1.06 percent to finish at 17,877. The index hit a weekly high of 17,877 on Thursday before reversing and making a weekly low of 17,606 on Thursday afternoon. However, it would then reverse on Friday, gaining 256 points on the day.

In international news, Canada announced on Friday that retail sales were down .3 percent while core retail sales were up .3 percent over the past month. On Tuesday, Canada announced that its inflation rate was .4 percent for the past month and 2.4 percent on an annualized basis.

The upcoming week will be another busy one as the CB Consumer Confidence report is set to be issued on Tuesday. In addition, preliminary gross domestic product (GDP) and unemployment claims data will be released on Thursday. Finally, on Friday, the monthly PCE Price Index is set to be released, and it is expected to come in at .2 percent.

This week saw several consequential news releases come out that will likely shape expectations for how the Fed will act in September. The figures released over the last five days will also likely have an impact on whether market participants believe that there is going to be a soft landing for the economy.

On Tuesday, the Price Producer Index (PPI) was released. It revealed that overall, prices increased by .1 percent during the past month, compared to an expected increase of .2 percent over that same time period. Core PPI was flat for the current month compared to an expected increase of .2 percent, and it’s worth noting that the Core PPI for June was downgraded to an increase of .3 percent.

On Wednesday, the CPI report for July came out, and it revealed that inflation was 2.9 percent on an annualized basis, which was lower than the expected 3 percent. Core CPI and overall CPI were up .2 percent on a monthly basis, which was in line with what analysts were expecting.

On Thursday, retail sales figures were made available to the public, and it was revealed that overall sales were up 1 percent on a monthly basis. Core retail sales were up .4 percent on a monthly basis, which was more than the .1 percent gain that analysts had projected. Overall sales were only expected to go up by .4 percent.

It’s worth noting that there were some questions about the data as the figures were significantly better than expected. However, the main takeaway for most observers is that it’s more likely that the economy can remain strong for the time being.

The other takeaway is that the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates by more than 25 basis points. After some poor economic news last week, markets fell dramatically, and it was thought that the Fed might need to make a cut of 50 basis points.

However, markets have largely recovered since initially making solid gains last Friday. In comments earlier this week, Fed member Bostic said that it might make more sense to simply hold off until the end of the year to make a cut. He mentioned that it would be worse to stay the course instead of cutting early and having to raise rates again in the future.

Also on Thursday, unemployment claims data came in better than expected as there were only 227,000 claims for benefits compared to an expected 236,000. This gives some more credence to the idea that the economy might be able to survive even if rates aren’t slashed immediately.

On Friday, the University of Michigan came out with its preliminary inflation expectation and consumer sentiment reports. Consumers believe that inflation will remain at 2.9 percent 12 months from now. Consumer sentiment was 67.8, which was higher than the expected 66.7.

The S&P 500 was up 3.65 percent to close at 5,554 this week. On Tuesday morning, the market hit its low of 5,336 before beginning a steady climb into Friday. On Friday afternoon, the S&P would hit its high of 5,558 before easing slightly into the close.

Like the S&P 500, the Dow would also gain more than 3 percent this week to close at 40,659. On Monday afternoon, the market hit its low of the week at 39,306, and it would hit its high of 40,270 on Friday afternoon.

Finally, the Nasdaq was the big winner for the week as it would finish up 4.91 percent to close at 17,631. The Nasdaq made its low of the trading week on Monday morning at 16,739 and would make its high for the last five trading days on Friday afternoon when it tapped 17,660.

In international news, New Zealand cut its interest rate by 25 basis points on Tuesday night. On Wednesday morning, it was revealed that inflation in the United Kingdom (UK) came in at 2.2 percent compared to an expected 2.3 percent. On Thursday, it was revealed that GDP growth was flat in the UK.

The upcoming week will be dominated by the Jackson Hole Symposium taking place on Thursday and Friday. Jerome Powell will speak there on Friday morning. FOMC meeting minutes are scheduled to be released on Wednesday afternoon, which could give some insight into where the Fed might be heading with interest rates. Internationally, Canada is expected to release inflation data on Tuesday while many European nations will be releasing Services and Manufacturing PMI data on Thursday.