Market Perspective for August 11, 2024

Market Perspective for August 11, 2024

The previous five trading days were relatively devoid of any major scheduled news announcements. However, this doesn’t mean that there wasn’t any drama in the markets.

On Monday, the ISM Services PMI was released and came in at 51.4, which was higher than the anticipated 51.1. It was also higher than the 48.8 figure from last month. Ultimately, this month’s figure indicates that the service sector is expanding while last month the index indicated that there was a contraction in the service sector.

This could have some implications for inflation as the price of services was one of the main drivers of price increases across the board. On Thursday, unemployment claim data was released and revealed 233,000 people filed for benefits. The figure was lower than the anticipated 241,000 and lower than the 250,000 requests last week.

If unemployment claims figures stay where they are, it could mean that concerns about the labor market are unfounded. In addition to inflation figures, the Fed also takes unemployment and earnings data into account when making decisions about the country’s main interest rate. It could have an impact on whether the Fed will decrease rates quickly or whether they will continue to take a measured approach.

After significant volatility in the markets, there were some banks calling for a 50 basis point cut to the Fed Funds Rate. The rate is currently in a range between 5.25 percent and 5.5 percent. However, the consensus is still that the Fed will only cut rates by 25 points in September and continue to be dependent on data as it relates to future cuts.

It’s worth noting that the Japanese government said that it wouldn’t necessarily continue to raise interest rates as it had planned to. This helped to calm those who believed that higher Japanese interest rates would lead to the end of the years-long carry trade. Essentially, you borrow a currency that charges a lower interest rate and invest it into a currency that charges a higher interest rate.

You can also use your inexpensive funds to buy stocks or other items that have the potential to appreciate. Without access to cheap currency, many chose to sell their holdings to lock in profits. This was partially what led to the volatility seen in markets over the past couple of weeks.

This week the S&P 500 gained 3.72 percent to finish at 5,344. The market would effectively begin the week at its lowest point and finish the week at its highest point. On Monday morning, the index dipped to 5,150 before beginning its climb for the week.

The Nasdaq would gain 6.17 percent this week to finish at 16,745. Much like the S&P 500, the Nasdaq would begin the week at its low of 15,774 and finish at its highest point. Despite significant losses in the two weeks prior to this one, the index is still hovering near yearly and all-time highs.

Finally, the Dow would gain 908 points to close at 39,497 for the week. This represents an increase of 2.35 percent over the past five trading sessions. As with the other two indexes, the Dow also started at the low point of the week and finished at its weekly high. The low on Monday was 38,598.

In international news, Australia elected to keep its key interest rate steady at 4.35 percent. On Friday morning, Canada announced that it had lost roughly 2,800 jobs over the past month, which was much lower than the expected increase of almost 27,000 jobs over that same time period.

On Tuesday, the Price Producers Index (PPI) will be released while CPI data is set to be released on Wednesday. Inflation is expected to be 3 percent on an annualized basis. Retail sales and unemployment benefit figures will be released on Thursday morning.

Market Perspective for August 4, 2024

Market Perspective for August 4, 2024

It was a consequential week for market participants as the Federal Reserve made an interest rate decision on Wednesday. In addition, nonfarm payroll data was released on Wednesday and Friday. On Friday, markets had their worse day of losses since last year, pulling the market lower for the week.

The first of two main events for the week saw the Fed hold its key interest rate steady at a range of 5.25 percent to 5.5 percent. This was widely anticipated regardless of what the economy had done over the past couple of weeks. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that he senses that the time to reduce interest rates is coming soon and there are downside risks to waiting any longer.

He also mentioned that the risk of a hard landing is low. A hard landing refers to a recession occurring because of interest rate hikes. Of course, the other main event this week was the release of the ADP nonfarm payroll report on Wednesday and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) version of that same report on Friday. Those reports indicate that the economy is starting to slow.

On Wednesday, the ADP report found that the economy added 122,000 jobs in July, which was lower than the expected 147,000 new positions. The BLS reported that there were only 114,000 jobs added in July compared to an expected 176,000 new positions. In addition, last month’s figure was revised downward to 179,000.

It was also revealed on Friday that the unemployment rate jumped from 4.1 percent to 4.3 percent, which was .2 percent higher than analysts expected it to be. Finally, it was reported on Friday that average monthly earnings increased by .2 percent as opposed to an expected .3 percent.

Despite the lack of hiring, the number of open positions beat expectations. On Tuesday, the JOLTS report found that there were 8.18 million available jobs, which was higher than the expected 8.02 million. Meanwhile the CB Consumer Confidence report found that the index jumped to 100.3 this month from 97.8 last month. The index was expected to come in at 99.7.

On Wednesday, it was reported that pending home sales jumped by 4.8 percent in the last month. Furthermore, the June figure was revised upward to show a drop of only 1.9 percent from May.

On Thursday, it was revealed that unemployment claims increased to 249,000 from last week’s figure of 235,000. Analysts had projected that there would be 236,000 claims this week. Also on Thursday, the ISM Manufacturing PMI came out at 46.8 percent, which was below the expected 48.8.

The S&P 500 closed down 131 points this week to finish at 5,346, which represented a loss of 2.39 percent over the past five trading days. The market made its high of the week on Thursday when it reached 5,555 and would reach its low of the week on Friday morning when it dipped to 5,306.

The Dow lost 801 points this week to close at 39,737. This represented a loss of 1.98 percent for the week, and most of the loss was attributed to a Friday session in which the Dow lost 610 points. The high of the week came on Wednesday at 41,169 while the low of the week came on Friday when the market hit 39,375.

Finally, the Nasdaq dropped 4.18 percent this week to close at 16,776. On Wednesday afternoon, the Nasdaq hit its high of the week at 17,770 and would make its low of the week on Friday morning when it dipped to 16,620.

In international news, Great Britain reduced its interest rate to 5 percent from 5.25 percent on Thursday. This comes on the heels of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) increasing the nation’s key interest rate from about .10 percent to about .25 percent. Australia announced on Monday that its yearly CPI was 3.8 percent while the Eurozone announced on Wednesday morning that its estimated inflation rate for the year was 2.6 percent.

Next week will be relatively light on news in the United States with only the ISM Services PMI on Monday and unemployment claims on Thursday scheduled to be released.

Market Perspective for July 28, 2024

Market Perspective for July 28, 2024

Markets made significant moves this week with the release of important economic data. Advanced gross domestic product (GDP) figures for the second quarter and the Core PCE Price index monthly update were of particular interest to investors.

On Thursday, it was revealed that the economy grew by an estimated 2.8 percent during the previous three months. This was well above the expected 2 percent growth and was nearly double that revised figure of 1.4 percent from the first quarter. At first, the news was seen as unsettling to those who were hoping for a rate cut in September.

However, after the market was able to digest the information, the odds for a September cut rebounded. The market now expects a rate cut of at least 25 basis points in September, with another in December.

This is largely because data has shown a slowdown in hiring, a slowdown in spending and an increase of the unemployment rate. According to many analysts, housing and gas prices are the largest hurdles to getting inflation to tick back to 2 percent.

On Friday, the Core Price Index showed a .2 percent increase on a monthly basis. This was exactly what analysts expected prior to the release. It was also revealed on Friday that personal income went up by .2 percent on a monthly basis while personal spending increased by .3 percent. While the spending figure came in as expected, personal income was expected to increase by .4 percent.

In other news this week, it was announced on Wednesday that the Flash Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.5 while the Flash Services PMI came in at 56. On Thursday it was reported that durable goods orders dropped 6.6 percent on a monthly basis. Meanwhile core durable goods orders were up .5 percent. Durable goods orders were expected to increase by .3 percent while core durable goods orders were expected to go up by .2 percent.

In addition, it was revealed on Thursday that there were 235,000 unemployment benefit claims in the past seven days. The number was slightly below a projected 237,000 claims and was also lower than last week’s figure of 245,000.

The Dow finished the week up 170 points to close at 40,589. The weekly gain was largely attributable to a strong close on Friday that saw the market gain 654 points, which was a 1.64 percent increase on the day. On Wednesday, the market made its weekly low of 39,899 and made a weekly high of 40,744 on Friday afternoon. For the week, the index would gain 1.64 percent.

The Nasdaq would lose 590 points this week to close at 17,357, and this was the second straight week that the tech index would suffer a significant loss. The high of the week took place on Tuesday when the market hit 18,099 and would make its weekly low of 17,070 on Thursday. For the week, the index would lose 2.08 percent.

The S&P 500 lost 80.94 points this week to close at 5,459. As with the other two indexes, the S&P had a strong Friday to somewhat mitigate the damage for investors over the week. The market made its high of the week of 5,580 on Tuesday and would make its low of the week of 5,399 on Thursday. For the week, the index would lose 0.83 percent.

In international news, the Bank of Canada announced on Wednesday that it would be lowering the country’s prime interest rate to 4.5 percent from 4.75 percent. Japan also announced this week that its inflation rate was 2.1 percent on an annualized basis.

There will be a number of news announcements coming out next week, which includes the July nonfarm payroll figure. The FOMC will also be meeting next week to make its latest interest rate decision. Although there have been some calling for a rate cut now, it’s unlikely that rates change before September. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the Bank of England (BOE) will also be making interest rate decisions for their respective countries.