Market Perspective for January 4, 2026

Market Perspective for January 4, 2026

On Monday, pending home sale data was made public, and over the past month, there was an increase of 3.3 percent in those sales. This may be due to mortgage rates falling to levels not seen in recent years, which has caused buyers to pounce while they have a chance to keep their payments at an affordable level. There has also been a slowdown in home price increases in several parts of the country, which had created more flexibility in the market.

An increase in home sales is a good sign for the economy because it generally means a series of additional consumer purchases are on the way. For instance, a homeowner will likely buy furniture, appliances or materials to upgrade their property. This can also be good news for contractors and other service providers who help maintain or improve homes.

On Tuesday, the main event of the week came in the form of the FOMC meeting minutes for December. During that meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the minutes from that gathering show that there are likely to be more cuts in the future. However, the minutes also showed that voting members were torn as to how many cuts should occur and when they may take place.

This is partially because there are two schools of thought as it relates to inflation caused by our current tariff policy. There are also questions about the quality of the data that is being distributed as impacts are still being felt from the government shutdown in late 2025.

Fortunately, there was no question about the accuracy of the final weekly unemployment claims for 2025. The last week of December saw 199,000 requests for benefits, which was about 20,000 fewer than expected and about 15,000 fewer than reported last week.

Trading was relatively slow this week, but the markets were open and did make some moves over the final days of 2025. The S&P 500 was down 0.72 percent to finish the week at 6,858. For the week, the index made a high of 6,911 on Monday morning and a low of 6,858 on Friday.

The Dow was down about 0.6 percent this week, which was a loss of 290 points. This week, the index made a high of 48,640 on the open of Monday’s session and a low of 47,917 on Friday morning.

Finally, the Nasdaq was down 1.55 percent this week to finish at 25,206, which was a loss of 397 points. Over the last five trading days, the index opened the week at its high of 25,590 and made a low of 25,109 on Friday.

Next week will be a jobs report Friday as the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announces the employment figures for December. The ADP version of this report will come out on Wednesday. The BLS projects that the economy added 57,000 jobs in the final month of 2025. The University of Michigan will be releasing consumer sentiment and inflation expectation data on Friday as well. Finally, the ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM Services PMI will also be released next week.

Market Perspective for December 28, 2025

Market Perspective for December 28, 2025

The Christmas holiday meant that the most important news was released during the first half of the week.

On Tuesday, the preliminary gross domestic product (GDP) data from the last three months was made public. During that time, the economy grew by an estimated 4.3 percent. This was significantly higher than the projected 3.3 percent and also higher than the 3.8 percent posted last quarter.

Also on Tuesday, the CB consumer confidence report was repleased, coming in at 89.1. This was lower than both the projected 91.7 and last month’s figure of 92.9, which was upwardly revised when this month’s report came out. This means that consumers aren’t buying that the economy is going to be great in a few months despite what recent numbers suggest.

On Wednesday, the unemployment claims data for the last seven days came out. Over that time, 214,000 people requested benefits. This was about 10,000 more than expected, and it was also about 10,000 more than the previous week.

The S&P 500 was up 1.93 percent this week to close at 6,929. This was a gain of 131 points over last week, and most of the gain occurred on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. The index made its low of the week on Monday when it dipped to 6,858 before going up the rest of the week. The high came on Friday morning when the market peaked at 6,944.

The Dow was up 1.2 percent to close at 48,710 at the end of the day Friday, which was a gain of 575 points for the week. As with the S&P, the Dow did most of its work during the first three days of the week before staying in a tight range on Friday. On Monday, the market made its low of the week at 48,245 and made its high of the week on Wednesday when it peaked at 48,741.

Finally, the Nasdaq was also up this week finishing 1.87 percent higher to close at 25,644. This was a gain of 471 points last week. The Nasdaq saw most of its gains over the first three days of the week. On Tuesday, the index made its low of the week when it dipped to 25,416 while it made its high of the week on Friday morning when it peaked at 25,710.

There were a couple of notable international releases. The Canadian GDP shrunk by 0.3 percent over the last quarter. On Thursday night, Japan announced that inflation was 2.3 percent on an annualized basis, which was lower than the projected 2.5 percent.

The upcoming week is likely to be another slow one as the markets will close for New Year’s. Tuesday will see the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting, which is likely to further highlight the differing opinions between the voting members. On Wednesday, unemployment claim figures for the past seven days will be made public. Finally, Friday sees the release of the final manufacturing PMI for December.