Market Perspective for March 10, 2024

Market Perspective for March 10, 2024

The first full week in March was a consequential one as the nonfarm payroll (NFP) was released on Friday. However, it was far from the only important news that came out over the past five trading days.

On Tuesday, the ISM Services PMI was released and revealed a slight slowdown in service sector demand. The March report came in at 52.6 percent, which was slightly lower than the projected 53 percent before the news was released and was also just below the 53.4 percent from last month. Essentially, the number means that service demand is still growing, though not at as fast a pace.

A pair of important new reports were released on Wednesday with the Job Openings Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealing that there were 8.86 million positions available in February. This was roughly in line with what analysts expected and just below the 8.89 million openings in January.

Also on Wednesday, the ADP nonfarm payroll report was made public. It found that the economy added 140,000 jobs in February compared to an expected 149,000. However, this was still an increase from the 111,000 jobs added in January.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave prepared remarks on Wednesday and said that the path to 2 percent inflation would likely be a bumpy one. However, he also said that rate cuts would likely be appropriate in the near future if the economy continued to evolve as expected. He expressed a similar sentiment in another speech given on Thursday morning.

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the more anticipated NFP. It found that there were 275,000 jobs added to the economy in February, which was much higher than the 198,000 projected. Furthermore, it was revealed that the unemployment rate had gone up to 3.9 percent and average hourly earnings on a monthly basis had gone up by .1 percent. It was expected that the unemployment rate would be 3.7 percent and that average hourly earnings would have increased by .2 percent.

The Dow lost 258 points this week to finish at 38,722. It would make a weekly high of 39,064 on Monday before dipping to a low of 38,474 on Tuesday. Despite the losses this week, the Dow is still up 2.67 percent for the year.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 lost 7.51 points to finish at 5,123 for the week. It would hit a weekly low of 5,056 on Tuesday before rebounding and making a high of 5,187 on Friday morning. The S&P has gained 8.03 percent in 2024.

Finally, the Nasdaq would also give back some of its gains this week finishing 155 points lower to close at 16,085. The market made a low of 15,869 on Tuesday and a high of 16,429 on Friday. As with the other markets, the Nasdaq is up 8.93 percent this year.

In overseas news, Switzerland reported on Monday that inflation rose to .6 percent on a monthly basis. On Tuesday, Australia reported gross domestic product growth of .2 percent in the past quarter. The Bank of Canada decided to hold its interest rate steady at 5 percent on Wednesday. On Friday, the BOC announced that the country’s unemployment rate was still 5.8 percent although more than 40,000 jobs were added in the last month.

The upcoming week will see the release of inflation figures. Price, retail sale and unemployment claim data are all set to be released on Thursday while the Empire State Manufacturing Index will be made public on Friday. The University of Michigan will also release its preliminary sentiment and inflation expectation data for the month.

The Investor Guide to Fidelity Funds for March 2024

The Investor Guide to Fidelity Funds for March 2024

The Investor Guide to Fidelity Funds for March 2024 is AVAILABLE NOW! March Data Files Are Posted Below Market Perspective: New Highs Driven by Tech Stocks Investors kept buying tech stocks […]

Market Perspective for February 25, 2024

Market Perspective for February 25, 2024

The market has abandoned the belief a rate cut would occur in March. There are also whispers that a potential June cut may be followed by additional easing later in 2024.

On Wednesday, the minutes from the FOMC’s January meeting were released to the public. As many assumed, the Fed said that it was waiting for greater signs that inflation was heading closer to 2 percent before making any changes to the existing interest rate. Furthermore, the FOMC said that it would be paying close attention to potential inflation risks such as elevated housing prices or steady demand for services.

The next inflation report will be issued on March 12, and it is believed that the inflation rate should be under 3 percent at that point. However, this assumes that jobs data and inflation figures from January were a seasonal outlier and not a sign of prolonged economic strength.

On Thursday, a number of reports were issued that had an impact on American markets. First, the Flash Services and Flash Manufacturing PMI were released and came in at 51.3 percent and 51.5 percent respectively. The services figure was below analysts’ estimates of 52.4 percent while the manufacturing figure was higher than the analyst estimate of 50.5 percent prior to the release. Regardless, these figures indicate that demand for both manufacturing and services are expanding at a moderate pace.

Unemployment claims data revealed that 201,000 people filed for benefits in the last seven days. This was much lower than the 217,000 projected requests for benefits as well as lower than last week’s figure of 213,000. Finally, existing home sales data was released and revealed that four million homes had been sold over the previous months. The figure beat last month’s result of 3.88 million sales as well as analyst estimates of 3.96 million sales. An increase in home sales may release some pressure on rising prices, which may help to moderate overall inflation.

The S&P 500 was up 1.38 percent this week to close at 5,088. On Wednesday, the market hit a low of 4,950 before rebounding to hit a high of 5,110 on Friday.

Like the S&P, the Nasdaq was also a net gainer for the week finishing up 109.77 points to close at 15,996. The Nasdaq hit its low of the week on Wednesday when it dipped to 15,482 and hit its high on Friday at 16,118.

Finally, the Dow was up more than 420 points to finish at 39,131 for the week. As with the other major indexes, it would make a low of the week on Wednesday before rebounding and making a high on Friday. The weekly low was 38,390 while the weekly high was 39,255.

There were a variety of news reports released outside of the United States that might have some bearing on domestic markets. Canada revealed on Tuesday that inflation remained flat in January and that inflation dropped to 3.3 percent on an annualized basis. In China, officials revealed on Monday that the interest rate on loans with a term of one year was being dropped from 4.1 percent to 3.95 percent.

On Thursday, most of the major European economies released their own Flash Services and Manufacturing PMI numbers. Most nations reported a contraction in their manufacturing sectors but an increase in demand for services. Finally, the EU reported that inflation across the region was 2.8 percent on an annualized basis.

This upcoming week is going to be full of important news releases in the United States and abroad. In the United States, the CB Consumer Confidence report, initial GDP figures and revised University of Michigan consumer confidence and inflation figures will be made public. Internationally, New Zealand, Australia and Japan will release their most recent inflation numbers while Germany and other European nations will do the same.