Low volatility and diversification are two important methods for ensuring smoother investment returns. Many younger investors hold aggressive investment portfolios with high volatility stocks. This strategy may work for them as they aren’t touching the principal, or even adding money to their portfolio to make up for lower-than-expected returns. Retirement portfolios are not typically afforded this luxury, and any investors considering a significant withdrawal must take steps to maintain the portfolio value.
Diversification and rebalancing aimed at reducing portfolio volatility are paramount when considering these eventualities. Investors withdrawing cash periodically should utilize a conservative, diversified low-volatility strategy to steady the portfolio value. Diversification into fixed-income and uncorrelated assets, along with lower volatility funds help stabilize a portfolio. While stocks may rally or decline over the next year, investors can carefully diversify their assets and be prepared for any outcome.
Sequence of Returns and Inflation
The importance of diversification and controlling volatility is best exemplified by the impact of the sequence of gains and losses over time. An investment held for an extended period of time will reap the same total return, regardless of fluctuations, as long as no money is added or withdrawn. Most investors will inevitably withdraw at least some of that investment to finance retirement expenses or major purchases, such as a new home or helping to pay for grandchildren to go to college. Poor timing of that withdrawal could deal a major blow to total returns, but careful financial planning and prudent timing can greatly minimize losses.
For example, consider two investors fully invested in stocks in 1965. Both investors put $100,000 into a passive S&P 500 Index fund, and both start the year with $4,000 in living expenses that will be covered by a portfolio withdrawal. Both portfolios are exposed to the same amount of total inflation over 40 years, with one exception. The first investor experiences inflation as it happened, from 1965-2005. If we applied identical total inflation, but reversed the sequence of annual inflation the results would be vastly different. The accompanying graph illustrates the impact.
Though they earn the same exact annual returns from their S&P 500 Index fund, their total performance varies substantially due to the variation of inflation. At the end of 40 years, the first investor would have $300,000 remaining in the portfolio, while the second would have $2.65 million. Early and high inflation of the 1970’s along with withdrawals early impacted returns.
There are important lessons to draw from these results. The market’s sequence of returns and inflation will play a larger role in your total portfolio return from the moment you begin to withdraw. High inflation early on will require permanently high withdrawals down the road, which could weight on long-term returns if it accompanies a period of weak performance in stocks. Large one-time withdrawals can also have the same impact on long-term performance if they occur during a bear market in stocks.
Savvy investors employ strategies that mitigate risk to combat the uncertainties of future markets and the impact of inflation. Diversification into fixed income and holding funds with lower volatility reduces portfolio risk. Although inflation isn’t a current concern, investors should have a strategy for dealing with it.
Retired investors can also reduce market volatility risk by generating enough income to cover expenses. An investor with a 3 percent portfolio yield who needs a 3 percent return to cover expenses does not need to sell any assets in a bear market. An aggressive investor with a low-yield portfolio may be forced to sell a portion of assets in a down market, hurting long-term returns.
A safety-first portfolio itemizes essential expenses such as a mortgage, food, utilities and health insurance. A separate list of discretionary expenditures, such as vacations and entertainment can then be integrated to match the portfolio to meet each category.
Protect Your Nest Egg Early
One of the keys to retirement financial planning is ensuring the portfolio does not lose too much value early on. Studies show that what happens to a portfolio in the first few years of retirement is a significant factor in whether retirees outlive their nest eggs. Allocating too much of your portfolio in stocks and withdrawing too much during a volatile period can deplete assets quicker than anticipated. Reducing the percentage of stocks contained within a portfolio at the start of retirement can lower this risk.
These investing methods aim to retain as much purchasing power as possible. Taking too much out too early can create a shortfall from which the portfolio may not recover, even in subsequent periods of strong returns. We welcome the opportunity to discuss a dynamic, personalized approach to withdrawals that ensures the sustainability of your nest egg, regardless of market conditions. For answers to all of your questions regarding sequence risk or any of our services, contact us directly at (844) 336-9878 or email Matt at matt@mdswealthadvisors.com.