Market Perspective for August 10, 2018

The Russell 2000 Index led index performance this week with an 0.80-percent gain thanks to its reduced exposure to emerging markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Index declined on Friday after Turkey’s currency collapse dragged on emerging markets, European banks and U.S. stocks.

6.7 million job openings were reported in June, more than the number of unemployed workers. Initial claims for unemployment were 213,000.

Producer prices were flat in July, missing expectations of 0.2 percent. The core PPI increased 0.3 percent. Consumer price inflation and core CPI met 0.2-percent growth expectation. Core inflation increased 2.4 percent over the past 12 months. Although higher inflation is normally bullish for interest rates, the 10-year Treasury yield slid to a three-week low after emerging markets slid on Friday.

Consumer discretionary, telecom and technology were the best performing sectors this week. A strong earnings report from CenturyLink (CTL) lifted iShares U.S. Telecom (IYZ) 2.11 percent. SPDR Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and SPDR Technology (XLK) advanced 0.77 and 0.43 percent.

iShares MSCI Turkey (TUR) fell 20.58 percent and its tumbling currency was responsible for nearly all the losses this week.

The turmoil in Turkey weighed on the euro. iShares MSCI Europe Financials (EUFN) slid 2.91 percent on the day. The U.S. Dollar Index gained 1.4 percent on the week and broke out to a new 52-week high. SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) slipped 0.16 percent on the week. iShares MSCI EAFE (EFA) and iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) fell 2.03 and 2.31 percent, respectively. Sanctions on Russia also sank the ruble. WisdomTree Emerging Currency (CEW) slid 2.47 percent.

Friday’s weakness in Turkey also weighed on China, but iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) gained 1.50 percent for the week after stock market reforms, including encouraging stock buybacks.

Crude oil ended the week at $67.78 per barrel. Crude has traded in a range between $66 and $70 a barrel over the past three weeks. Natural gas rallied this week and approached a two-month high.

Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk secured financing to go private at $420 per share. TSLA gained nearly 15 percent from low to high on the day as a short squeeze accelerated.

This was a light week for earnings. Disney (DIS) increased earnings but missed revenue forecasts. Shares rallied after the analyst conference call after management talked up its coming streaming service. CVS Health (CVS) rallied all week after it beat profit and sales estimates.

 

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