The last trading week of November was cut short because of the Thanksgiving holiday, but that doesn’t mean that nothing of note happened. On Tuesday morning, the Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence report was released and came in at 111.7, which was slightly below the expected 111.8. Regardless, it was still higher than last month’s 109.6 and represents the highest figure since the January report came in at 114.8.
According to the CB, the figure was higher based on the expectation that jobs would be more readily available during December and into the beginning of 2025. Furthermore, consumers were more confident that their finances would improve during the first half of 2025. This was in large part because of optimism in the ability of the stock market to have a positive 2025.
On Tuesday afternoon, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released its meeting minutes from earlier in November. The main takeaway is that future cuts are more likely to be gradual to account for concerns about inflation that hasn’t fully eased. The market is currently split as to whether there will be a rate cut in December or if the Fed will decide to pause until its next meeting.
Interest rates are currently in a range between 4.5 percent and 4.75 percent, which is among the highest in the developed world. Prior to the November 5 election, there was optimism that rates could be pared back to about 3 percent by the end of 2025. However, there are some concerns about whether that is possible after President-Elect Donald Trump declared that he would place a 25 percent tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico as well as tariffs on goods from China. If imposed, those tariffs would almost certainly have an inflationary effect.
On Wednesday, the preliminary gross domestic product (GDP) figures from the third quarter were released. It was determined that the economy grew an estimated 2.8 percent during those three months, which matched analyst expectations.
Also on Wednesday, unemployment claim figures from the past seven days were released. During that period, 213,000 claims were made compared to an expected 215,000. It is also slightly lower than the 215,000 claims made a week ago.
Finally, the monthly Core PCE Price Index was made public and indicated that prices rose by .3 percent in October. This matched expectations and the rate of growth experienced in September when prices also rose by .3 percent.
The S&P 500 pushed back above 6,000 during the truncated trading week as it gained 1.44 percent over the past five trading days. At the close of trading Friday, the market stood at 6,032, which is close to an all-time high.
The Dow finished the week 44,910, which represents a 2.26 percent increase over the past five trading days. As with the S&P, the Dow is trading near its all-time high. On Tuesday morning, the Dow would make its low of the week at 44,445 while it would close at its high on Friday afternoon.
Finally, the Nasdaq finished the week at 19,218, which was an increase of 1.42 percent over the past five trading days. For the Thanksgiving week itself, the Nasdaq made a low of 18,943 on Wednesday afternoon and would finish the week just a touch off the week high of 19,221.
In international news, Australia announced on Tuesday that its annual inflation rate was at 2.1 percent, which was below an expected 2.5 percent. New Zealand announced that its main interest rate would remain at 4.25 percent.
This week features the JOLTS job openings report as well as the nonfarm payroll numbers for November. The ADP report is expected to say that the economy created 166,000 jobs in November while the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report is expected to say that the economy created 202,000 jobs over the past 30 days.