Market Perspective for December 15, 2024

The two major pieces of information to come out this week were the inflation figures for November and the Price Producer Index (PPI) number for November.

On Wednesday, it was revealed that both traditional and core CPI were up .3 percent this past month, which was in line with expectations. In addition, inflation came in at 2.7 percent on an annualized basis, which was also what markets expected prior to the release. Annual inflation ticked up .1 percent since last month, but that fact is not considered enough to prevent another rate cut when the Fed meets later in December.

On Thursday, it was revealed that core PPI was up .2 percent on a monthly basis, which matched expectations. However, overall PPI figures were up .4 percent, which was higher than the anticipated .2 percent. Furthermore, the overall PPI number for last month was adjusted higher to .3 percent.

Also on Thursday, unemployment claims data for the last seven days was made available. Over that period, there were 242,000 requests for benefits compared to an expected 221,000. This data point was also cited as a reason why the Fed should still cut rates when it meets next week.

The S&P 500 lost 28 points this week to close at 6,051. This was a .47 percent drop over the past five trading days that saw the market do little more than meander between its high and low. On Tuesday morning, the S&P made its weekly low of 6,036 while it made its weekly high of 6,092 on Wednesday afternoon.

Like the S&P 500, the Dow gave up ground this week finishing 788 points lower than it started on Monday. That represented a 1.77 percent pullback for the index that closed the week at 43,828, The weekly high of 44,683 was established on Monday morning before it spent the rest of the week in freefall. On Friday morning, the market made its weekly low of 43,811.

Finally, the Nasdaq finished the week at 19,926, which was a gain of 90 points or .46 percent. The market would make its weekly low of 19,652 on Tuesday afternoon before reversing and making its weekly high of 20,041 on Wednesday afternoon. It would spend the rest of the week in a narrow trading range that sits near the index’s all-time high.

In international news, a number of central banks made interest rate decisions this week. Australia decided to keep its rate at 4.35 percent while Canada and Switzerland opted for cuts of 50 basis points. The Eurozone also opted to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.15 percent in what is seen as an effort to prepare economically for the upcoming Trump administration.

Next week is the final full trading week of 2024, and there will be several major news releases to look forward to. On Monday, the Flash Manufacturing and Flash Services PMI numbers will come out. On Tuesday, core and overall retail sales figures for November will be made public while the Fed reveals its December interest rate decision on Wednesday afternoon.

On Thursday, final GDP and unemployment claims figures are released while Friday sees the release of core PCE Price Index data for November. In addition, the University of Michigan releases its final consumer sentiment and inflation expectation data for the month.

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